XRP's Convergence of Technical and On-Chain Bearish Signals: Is a Drop to $2 Imminent?

The XRP price action in October 2025 has painted a troubling picture for bulls, with technical and on-chain indicators converging to signal a potential collapse toward $2. While institutional adoption and regulatory clarity remain long-term tailwinds, short-term risks are amplified by bearish patterns, whale selling, and macroeconomic headwinds. This analysis dissects the data to assess whether the $2 level-a psychological and technical support-is within reach.

Technical Analysis: A Bearish Tapestry

XRP's price chart in October 2025 reveals a classic bearish setup. The asset is forming a descending triangle pattern on the daily chart, marked by lower highs and equal lows, which historically signals a breakdown toward key support levels, according to a Coinotag report. The $2.3 threshold is the immediate target, with a potential slide to $2 if liquidity dries up.

The Bollinger Bands on the weekly chart further reinforce the bearish bias. XRP remains compressed near the lower band, with the 20-day moving average at $2.54 acting as a critical resistance. A failure to reclaim this level could trigger a cascade to $2.09, the next support zone, as Coinotag's analysis suggests. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has lingered in oversold territory for weeks, but this has failed to attract buyers-a red flag for momentum traders.

A bullish reversal would require a decisive break above $2.8, piercing a historical supply imbalance between $2.5 and $2.77, as the Coinotag piece previously noted. However, the lack of volume during recent rallies suggests weak conviction among buyers.

On-Chain Signals: Whales and Selling Pressure

On-chain data paints an equally grim picture. A massive $62.64 million XRP transfer to Binance on October 13, 2025, triggered by an unknown whale, has intensified fears of institutional selling, according to a Finbold report. This movement occurred as XRP traded near $2.50, a level already under pressure from broader market weakness. Analysts note that such large transfers often precede price declines, as Finbold observed.

The Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR), a metric tracking whether transactions are profitable, hit 0.95 in late October-a level historically associated with capitulation and rebounds, as Coinotag noted. While this suggests short-term exhaustion among retail holders, the absence of follow-through buying has left the market vulnerable to further selloffs.

Whale activity has also turned cautious. Wallets holding 100,000 to 10 million XRP have shown minimal movement since mid-October, indicating a wait-and-see approach as the $1 billion XRP treasury initiative gains traction, Coinotag reported. However, this silence could backfire if smaller holders panic-sell, accelerating the descent toward $2.

Broader Risks: Regulation and Institutional Shifts

Regulatory delays continue to weigh on XRP's prospects. The SEC's stalled ETF approvals have left investors in limbo, while Western Union's shift to Solana for its USDPT stablecoin underscores XRP's waning institutional appeal, as CoinEdition reported. Solana's speed and low fees have made it a more attractive option for cross-border payments, diluting XRP's use case in a critical sector.

Ripple's treasury initiative, backed by SBI and co-founder Chris Larsen, aims to counter this narrative by boosting real-world utility. However, the market has yet to price in these developments, with XRP's price remaining trapped in a bearish consolidation phase.

Conclusion: A $2 Scenario Remains Plausible

The convergence of technical and on-chain bearish signals-coupled with regulatory and institutional headwinds-makes a $2 scenario highly plausible in the short term. While a rebound is not impossible, it would require a coordinated effort from bulls to break above $2.8 and absorb the massive supply imbalance above $2.5. Until then, XRP remains a high-risk asset for short-term investors.

For now, the path of least resistance is downward. Traders should monitor the $2.3 support level closely, as a breakdown could trigger a rapid descent to $2.