XRP: Bullish Structure vs. Bearish Catalysts – Is the Altcoin Ready for a Rebound?

The XRP market in October 2025 is caught in a tug-of-war between technical optimism and on-chain skepticism. On one side, EGRAG CRYPTO's analysis highlights a resilient bullish structure, with XRP forming an ascending triangle and key support levels intact. On the other, Ripple co-founder Chris Larsen's $120 million XRP sale has reignited debates about selling pressure from large holders. This article dissects the competing narratives to assess whether XRP can break free from its bearish narrative and reestablish a bull trend.

Technical Resilience: A Case for XRP's Bullish Setup

EGRAG CRYPTO's analysis paints a cautiously optimistic picture for XRP. The asset has been forming an ascending triangle since early 2025, a pattern that typically signals continuation of the prevailing trend if key levels hold. Crucially, XRP remains above the critical trend line near $2.65, a threshold that, if breached, could invalidate the bullish case, according to EGRAG CRYPTO's key levels. Analysts emphasize that maintaining strength above this level is essential for preserving the triangle's validity, as a close below it might trigger a retest of lower support zones at $2.31, $2.22, and $2.10.

Simultaneously, XRP faces resistance in the "pinkish square" zone between $3.13 and $3.20. A sustained close above this range could unlock a potential target near $3.60, a level not seen since the 2021 bull run, according to the same analysis. Short-term candlestick formations, such as Pin-Bars and Bullish Hammers, further suggest strong buying pressure near these levels, hinting at a possible reversal in sentiment as EGRAG CRYPTO noted.

However, EGRAG also notes a conflicting bearish scenario: XRP is trading within a descending channel, with the next major target near $2.57 if the price breaks below $2.65. This duality underscores the market's fragility, as XRP's direction hinges on whether buyers can defend the $2.65 level.

Bearish Catalysts: On-Chain Selling and Institutional Ambiguity

While technical indicators offer hope, on-chain activity tells a different story. In October 2025, Chris Larsen sold 50 million XRP tokens-valued at approximately $120 million-marking his first major sale since July 2024, Coinotag reported (see Coinotag). This transaction, reported by CryptoQuant, raised eyebrows among analysts, who noted Larsen's history of selling near local highs, Investor Empires reported. Despite the size of the sale, XRP's price reaction was muted, rising only 2.5% in the 24 hours afterward, as Coinotag noted.

The timing of Larsen's sale coincided with Evernorth's SPAC merger with Armada Acquisition Corp., a move aimed at raising $1 billion for XRP treasury purchases, according to Coinotag. While this institutional backing could theoretically offset selling pressure, the market's indifference to the news suggests a lack of conviction in XRP's long-term narrative. Evernorth has already secured $200 million in funding from SBI Holdings, with additional support from Kraken and Pantera Capital, per Coinotag's coverage. Yet, XRP remains below its multi-year high of $3.66, and analysts caution that the token must reclaim the 200-day simple moving average at $2.60 to reverse the downtrend, Investor Empires noted.

Market Sentiment: A Clash of Narratives

The juxtaposition of EGRAG's bullish technicals and Larsen's bearish on-chain activity has created a mixed market sentiment. On one hand, the ascending triangle and key support levels suggest that XRP's structure remains intact, with buyers stepping in to defend critical thresholds. On the other, Larsen's sale-coupled with Evernorth's treasury strategy-has introduced uncertainty about the token's supply dynamics.

Notably, the market's muted reaction to Larsen's $120 million sale indicates a potentially matured investor base less susceptible to insider movements. However, this does not eliminate the risk of future selling pressure, especially if Evernorth's SPAC merger fails to attract broader institutional adoption.

Conclusion: Can XRP Break Free?

The path forward for XRP hinges on two critical factors: technical execution and institutional alignment. If XRP can close above the $3.13–$3.20 resistance zone and reclaim the 200-day SMA, the bullish case gains significant momentum. Conversely, a breakdown below $2.65 could reignite bearish sentiment, forcing the price into lower support levels.

While Larsen's sale is a red flag for some, the broader Ripple ecosystem's developments-particularly Evernorth's treasury strategy-offer a counterbalance. Investors must weigh these competing narratives carefully. For now, XRP remains in a precarious limbo, where every candlestick and on-chain transaction could tip the scales.