Is XRP's Bullish Cycle Still Intact Amid Diverging Analyst Views?

The debate over XRP's trajectory in 2025 has intensified, with bullish and bearish camps locked in a technical and macroeconomic tug-of-war. On one side, analysts like Egrag Crypto argue that XRP's structural resilience-bolstered by intact support levels and institutional adoption-positions it for a retest of $3.00 and a potential 2026 surge to $4.00. On the other, bearish critiques highlight deteriorating technical indicators, regulatory delays, and macroeconomic headwinds. To assess XRP's investment potential, we must dissect these arguments through the lenses of technical structure, macroeconomic shifts, and geopolitical dynamics.

Bullish Resilience: Support Levels and Historical Accumulation

Egrag Crypto's analysis underscores XRP's critical support levels at $2.20 and $1.97, which he argues act as "guardrails" for the asset's long-term bullish framework. As long as XRP remains above these thresholds, the asset's technical structure remains intact, with a potential retest of the $3.00 psychological barrier looming, according to an Egrag Crypto analysis. Historical patterns further reinforce this optimism: since 2021, XRP has consistently formed higher lows, indicating accumulation by long-term holders and positioning it for a potential 2026 rally to $3.80–$4.00, as Egrag Crypto suggests.

This resilience is compounded by institutional adoption. The REX-Osprey XRP ETF recently hit $100 million in assets under management, while CME Group's XRP futures and options have seen over $27 billion in notional volume since May 2025, per a Coinotag report. Corporate entities like Evernorth are also treating XRP as a balance-sheet asset, with its holdings now at 95% of its treasury target, according to a TradingView report. These developments suggest XRP is transitioning from speculative trading to a utility-driven asset, a shift often preceding sustained bull cycles.

Bearish Pressures: Technical Divergence and Regulatory Uncertainty

Contrasting this optimism, bearish analysts like Blockchain Backer point to deteriorating technical indicators. XRP's price recently collapsed to $2.38, testing support at $2.3375, while the RSI has plummeted to 30-a classic bearish momentum signal, according to a TradingView analysis. A breakdown below $2.20 could trigger a cascade to $2.00–$1.80, with on-chain metrics like the Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) and MACD reinforcing downward pressure, as reported in an Economic Times piece.

Macro risks further amplify these concerns. The U.S. government shutdown has stalled the SEC's review of XRP ETFs, creating regulatory limbo for institutional investors, a point highlighted in a Coinotag analysis. Meanwhile, 35 billion XRP in escrow-unavailable for circulation-raises fears of potential supply shocks if Ripple decides to release or sell these tokens (TradingView previously reported on the escrow). Even bullish developments, like Evernorth's $1 billion XRP acquisition, have yet to translate into consistent price gains, as that TradingView analysis also observed.

Macro Rotations: Fed Policy and Geopolitical Catalysts

The broader macroeconomic landscape offers a mixed outlook. A 25 basis point rate cut by the U.S. Federal Reserve in late 2025 has already spurred risk-on sentiment, with XRP's futures Open Interest (OI) surging to $4.51 billion, according to FXStreet. However, the OI-weighted funding rate remains weak, signaling cautious investor confidence (that same FXStreet piece also notes the weak funding rate).

Geopolitical tensions, particularly the U.S.-China trade standoff, have introduced volatility. While these dynamics create short-term uncertainty, they also highlight XRP's utility as a cross-border payment tool. Analyst AiMan notes that XRP's decade-long 30,000% gain from 2015 underscores its role as a hedge against traditional financial system fragility, as discussed in a CryptoBasic piece. If global liquidity constraints persist, XRP's fast, low-cost remittance use case could drive adoption, especially in emerging markets.

Assessing XRP's Investment Potential

The key question for investors is whether XRP's bullish structure can withstand near-term bearish pressures. Egrag's thesis hinges on the $2.20–$1.97 support levels holding, with a retest of $3.00 acting as a catalyst for a 2026 rally. Conversely, a breakdown below $2.20 could trigger a multi-month correction to $1.61, as seen in historical bear cycles (an Economic Times analysis described similar downside scenarios).

Institutional adoption and macroeconomic rotations provide a bullish tailwind, but these must overcome regulatory delays and competitive threats from stablecoins post-GENIUS Act, as Crypto.news noted. For now, XRP's price action near $2.64-above its 200-period EMA-suggests a critical inflection point. A sustained close above $2.65 could drive it toward $2.70–$2.80, while failure to hold could reignite bearish momentum, according to a Coinotag report.

Conclusion

XRP's bullish cycle remains intact if key support levels hold and institutional adoption accelerates. However, the bearish case-rooted in technical divergence and regulatory uncertainty-cannot be ignored. Investors should monitor the $2.20–$1.97 range closely, while keeping an eye on the SEC's ETF approval timeline and macroeconomic shifts. For those with a medium-term horizon, XRP's unique position in the cross-border payments ecosystem and its historical resilience make it a compelling, albeit volatile, speculative play.