XRP's Bullish Buy-In Clashes with Bearish NVT Signal as ETFs Loom

Source: [11] Why Rising Exchange Reserves May Not Be Bearish for XRP Price (https://beincrypto.com/xrp-exchange-reserves-surge-analysis/) [12] XRP Hits Record-Breaking Accumulation Phase in 2025: What’s (https://www.btcc.com/en-US/square/DarkChainX/921260) [13] XRP Ledger Activity Surges With NVT Ratio Spike and $44M … (https://www.tronweekly.com/xrp-ledger-activity-surges-with-nvt-ratio-spike/)

XRP has entered a significant accumulation phase in late 2025, with major institutional and retail investors acquiring over 30 million tokens in recent weeks. On-chain data reveals a synchronized surge in XRP reserves across exchanges like Binance, Bithumb, Bybit, and OKX, with Binance alone adding 610 million XRP to its holdings. While such inflows typically signal bearish pressure, analysts argue the timing and magnitude suggest strategic accumulation rather than short-term selling.

The surge coincides with XRP testing critical support levels near $2.73, a price floor that has repeatedly prevented deeper declines. CryptoOnchain, a blockchain analytics firm, noted the coordinated accumulation "could indicate institutional coordination or anticipation of a market event." Current technical indicators, including a 3.96% weekly gain to $2.95 and a declining Relative Strength Index (RSI), suggest reduced selling pressure. If this trend continues, XRP may target resistance levels at $3.34 and $3.58, with analysts forecasting potential bullish momentum if the $2.73 support holds.

However, the Network Value to Transactions (NVT) ratio—a key metric comparing XRP’s market cap to on-chain transaction volume—has spiked to a two-month high, raising concerns about overheating. As of September 2025, the NVT ratio reached 1,162, indicating increased transaction throughput ($44 million on November 2, 2024) but stagnant market cap growth. This divergence highlights a potential risk: while XRP’s ledger activity suggests growing adoption for cross-border payments, its valuation may not yet reflect this utility.

Exchange reserves have also drawn mixed interpretations. While Binance’s 1-year high in XRP holdings signals liquidity risk, long-term holder activity shows a different story. Exchange reserves have dropped to multi-year lows as investors shift tokens to cold storage, a trend historically linked to price breakouts. BTCC research underscores this pattern, noting that prolonged accumulation phases often precede major rallies.

Market sentiment remains polarized. Shawn Young of MEXC highlighted ETF approval as a potential catalyst, with pending XRP-focused ETF applications set for a late October decision. A favorable outcome could invalidate bearish patterns and propel XRP toward $3.40–$4.00. Conversely, Greg Miller warned of a "bearish momentum" if the $2.73 support fails, citing weak Total Value Locked (TVL) and fading interest as red flags.

In conclusion, XRP’s accumulation phase reflects a complex interplay of bullish and bearish signals. While strategic buying by whales and shrinking exchange reserves support a rebound, the NVT ratio’s divergence and regulatory uncertainties underscore caution. Investors are advised to monitor both on-chain activity and ETF developments as key drivers for the token’s next move.