XRP's Bull Case Hinges on ETFs, Tokenization Timelines, and the Fed

Market analysts are increasingly bullish on XRP, with recent price movements and technical patterns suggesting the potential for a sharp rise in the near term. Over the past week, XRP has outperformed Bitcoin, gaining more than 7% in a market where many other cryptocurrencies have declined. This divergence is partly attributed to growing expectations surrounding the potential approval of XRP ETFs in the fourth quarter of this year. Major financial firms, including Franklin Templeton and Bitwise, are already preparing to launch such products, while BlackRock and Fidelity are being cautious.

The XRP/BTC price chart has formed a descending channel pattern, with buyers attempting to push the price above the resistance line. As of now, the pair is trading around 0.00002652, and if it manages to close above this level, it could confirm a bullish breakout and set the stage for a potential rise to 0.000035, representing a 30% increase. This momentum has been further supported by Ripple’s ongoing legal settlement with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), which has helped to shift market sentiment in favor of the token.

In terms of USD price action, XRP has formed a descending triangle pattern on the XRP/USDT chart, with the price currently trading at $2.99 and showing a 4% increase over the last 24 hours. The rising 20-day EMA and RSI in the overbought region suggest that bullish momentum is in control, although traders remain cautious about potential corrections if the price encounters resistance around $3.00. A successful breakout above $3.00 could lead to a retest of the all-time highs and potentially open the door for a broader rally in 2025.

Looking further ahead, some analysts have made more speculative forecasts. Crypto analyst Costa recently proposed a bold projection in which XRP could reach as high as $473,214 if just 10% of global assets are tokenized on the XRP Ledger (XRPL) by 2030. According to Costa’s model, this would represent a $5.3 trillion market cap expansion, driven by unprecedented demand for XRP. While this scenario is highly speculative, it highlights the growing interest in tokenization and Ripple’s strategic position in shaping the future of digital finance. Ripple itself has suggested that 10% tokenization of global assets is achievable by 2030, supporting the long-term narrative around XRP’s utility and scarcity.

On the macroeconomic front, some analysts are watching closely for signs of easing monetary policy, particularly with the Federal Reserve expected to cut rates in the near term. A 25-basis-point cut could inject liquidity into the crypto market and potentially trigger a breakout for XRP above its current trading range. Analysts such as Matthew Dixon and Egrag Crypto have also noted that the token appears to be in a corrective pattern but could soon see a bullish resolution, especially if it maintains support around $2.75–$2.80 and confirms a breakout above $3.00.

Despite the optimism, market participants are advised to approach these projections with caution. While XRP’s technical setup and broader tokenization narrative present compelling arguments for a bullish case, the volatility inherent in the crypto market means that outcomes remain uncertain. For now, key focus areas include whale activity, institutional trading patterns, and the progress of potential XRP ETFs, all of which could influence the token’s short- and long-term trajectory.