XRP/BTC Just Broke the 200-Week Line-Why Bulls Still Aren't Safe

XRP/BTC is testing the 200-week moving average again

• XRP/BTC is near 0.00001920 BTC after testing a level that has historically acted either as a foundation for a strong rebound or as confirmation of a prolonged bearish trend. That makes the current setup decisive rather than neutral: if the zone holds, bulls keep a meaningful base; if it breaks, the bearish read strengthens.

• The split is clear. Bulls can point to XRP holding a historical support zone and, earlier in April, outperform Bitcoin and Ethereum in weekly growth. Bears have the cleaner near-term technical setup: the 50-day and 200-day moving averages remain above the current price. For now, the support test matters most, but only if the level holds.

• The original article also referenced specific wedge breakout and liquidity targets above the current zone. Those levels are not supported by the cited evidence, so they have been removed to keep the analysis grounded.

XRP ETF inflows are strong, but price still has not confirmed the bid

Overhead supply is still the main blockage

XRP ETFs have absorbed roughly $1.6 billion in inflows, even as BTC and ETH funds have seen record outflows. That is a real bullish signal. But price still has not turned that demand into a breakout, and the reason is familiar: about 60% of its circulating supply was bought near $1.44. As long as that group remains intact, rallies into that area can still run into selling pressure.

Macro conditions still favor Bitcoin

Risk sentiment is still important. Last week, $580 million in overnight liquidations hit as risk appetite weakened, while the 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.63%. In that backdrop, Bitcoin remains the default liquidity refuge inside crypto. That helps explain why XRP can attract institutional demand and still underperform against BTC while the broader risk tape stays fragile.

The real question is execution, not motivation

Bulls do not need to prove demand exists; XRP already has that. What they do need to prove is that demand is starting to overcome overhead supply. Bears, meanwhile, only need XRP to fail again near resistance while macro pressure stays elevated. Right now, that is why XRP is the one major crypto running a bullish flow divergence - and it still can't catch a bid remains the cleaner description of the setup.

Trade the levels, not the narrative

The practical watchlist is straightforward:

• Bullish confirmation: reclaim and hold above $1.45 resistance, then challenge the conservative forecast of $1.60.
• Bearish breakdown: a clear loss of $1.30 and especially $1.28 support would reopen the path toward $1.15.

That is the live debate. Bulls still have a case because XRP remains in a historical support zone. But bears have the cleaner near-term read until price proves it can absorb overhead supply and hold above resistance. If XRP keeps defending support without clearing $1.45, the bigger risk is not missed upside; it is trapped capital.