XRP's Bleeding Momentum: Is This the Precipice of a Short-Term Rebound or a Deeper Downtrend?

The XRP market in November 2025 has become a battleground of extremes. Leveraged liquidations exceeding $11.84 million in a 24-hour window-driven by a 710% imbalance favoring long positions-highlight the fragility of derivative positioning. Simultaneously, Santiment's 72% bearish sentiment shift and the token's 30-day MVRV ratio of -4.7% suggest a market teetering between capitulation and contrarian opportunity. Meanwhile, XRP ETF inflows have surged to $643 million in the first month of trading, signaling institutional resilience. This analysis dissects whether XRP's current dynamics point to a short-term rebound or a deeper structural breakdown.

Leveraged Liquidations: A Double-Edged Sword

The $11.84 million in liquidations over 24 hours-$10.37 million in longs versus $1.46 million in shorts-reveals a market overwhelmingly skewed toward long-biased traders according to recent data. Such imbalances often precede sharp corrections, as liquidation cascades amplify downward pressure. For XRP, this dynamic has played out within a narrow price range of $2.96 to $2.99 as reported, masking the volatility in derivatives markets.

However, liquidation data also acts as a self-fulfilling prophecy. When longs are wiped out, short sellers gain leverage to push prices lower, triggering further liquidations. This feedback loop could accelerate if XRP breaks below critical support levels like $2.32 or $1.82, where analysts estimate up to $300 million in short liquidations could be triggered. Conversely, a rebound above $3-a psychological and technical threshold-could stabilize the market by resetting risk-on positioning.

Bearish Sentiment and Historical Contrarian Signals

Santiment's 72% bearish sentiment shift places XRP in a "fear zone," a condition historically associated with short-term rebounds. For example, similar fear levels observed on November 21, 2025 were followed by a 22% price rally over three days. This pattern aligns with the idea that extreme pessimism among retail traders often precedes a bounce, as capitulation clears the field for buyers.

Yet, the bearish narrative is reinforced by on-chain metrics. XRP's 30-day MVRV ratio of -4.7% indicates slight undervaluation, but this is far less severe than peers like Cardano and Chainlink. This suggests XRP's pain is relative, not absolute, and may not justify a full-scale recovery unless macroeconomic conditions improve. The Federal Reserve's anticipated policy shifts could further complicate sentiment, as liquidity tightening typically amplifies altcoin volatility.

ETF Inflows: A Shield Against the Downtrend?

. Despite the bearish backdrop, XRP ETFs have shown remarkable resilience. Cumulative inflows reached $643 million by November 26, 2025, with spot ETFs like Bitwise's XRP ETF contributing $7.46 million in a single day according to reports. These figures indicate growing institutional demand, even as the broader crypto market struggles.

The ETF-driven demand has two implications. First, it provides a floor for XRP's price, as institutional buyers absorb selling pressure. Second, it signals a potential decoupling from Bitcoin's influence. While Bitcoin ETFs have also seen inflows, XRP's ETFs have outpaced them in recent weeks, suggesting unique tailwinds for the token. However, this resilience is not a guarantee of long-term success. If macroeconomic conditions deteriorate further, ETF outflows could exacerbate the downtrend.

The Path Forward: Rebound or Breakdown?

The coming weeks will hinge on XRP's ability to hold key levels. A successful defense of $2.04-a level identified by analysts as critical-could trigger a short-term rebound toward $2.65. Conversely, a breakdown below $2.04 risks a cascade of liquidations and a test of the $1.82 level, where further short selling could dominate.

For investors, the decision to buy or hold depends on risk tolerance. The 72% bearish sentiment and ETF inflows create a paradox: fear-driven capitulation and institutional demand are both at play. While historical patterns suggest a rebound is possible, the structural risks-such as leveraged positioning and macroeconomic headwinds-cannot be ignored.

Conclusion

XRP's November 2025 dynamics reflect a market at a crossroads. Leveraged liquidations and bearish sentiment amplify short-term risks, but ETF inflows and historical contrarian signals offer a counterbalance. Investors must weigh the likelihood of a rebound against the potential for a deeper downtrend, particularly if key support levels fail. For now, XRP remains a high-volatility asset with both catalysts and vulnerabilities in equal measure.