XRP's Bearish Double Top and Downside Risks: A Technical and Sentiment Analysis

The XRP price has entered a critical phase of its 2025 trajectory, marked by a sustained breakdown below the $2 support level and the emergence of a bearish double-top pattern. This development, underscored by deteriorating technical indicators and weakening market sentiment, signals mounting downside risks for the Ripple-linked token. Below, we dissect the mechanics of this bearish setup and its implications for investors.

Technical Analysis: A Double-Top Formation and Structural Weakness

According to Coindesk, XRP's recent price action has formed a textbook double-top pattern, characterized by two failed attempts to reclaim the $3.30–$3.40 resistance zone. The breakdown below $2.00 has not only invalidated near-term bullish expectations but also triggered a cascade of bearish confirmations. Bearish moving averages, including the 50-period and 200-period SMAs, have aligned to reinforce the downward bias, while the MACD histogram has printed increasingly bearish divergences, with deeper bars below the zero line.

A critical technical level now in focus is the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at $1.63, a historically significant support area. As FXEmpire states, the price's failure to hold above this level raises the probability of a retest of the 78.6% retracement at $1.20, potentially extending the decline toward the $0.90–$1.00 range. This trajectory aligns with classical double-top target calculations, where the measured move from the pattern's peak to trough is projected to extend downward from the breakdown point.

On-chain data and broader market sentiment further corroborate the bearish narrative. Ambcrypto highlights that long-term holders have been aggressively taking profits, a trend amplified by the sharp decline in institutional purchasing activity. This is evident in the collapse of XRP ETF inflows, which had previously served as a proxy for institutional confidence. The reduction in buying pressure has left the token vulnerable to liquidity-driven sell-offs, particularly as exchange reserves have risen, increasing the supply available for short-term dumping.

Meanwhile, Mitrade's analysis underscores a dissonance between ETF-related optimism and the underlying price structure. While XRP has closed positively on some sessions amid ETF-related news, the lack of follow-through buying above key resistance levels-such as $1.98-suggests a lack of conviction among buyers. This divergence between price action and sentiment is a classic precursor to extended bearish momentum.

Implications and Strategic Considerations

For investors, the immediate priority is to monitor the $1.63 Fibonacci level as a critical psychological and technical threshold. A sustained close below this level would likely accelerate the decline toward $1.20, with potential for further downside if macroeconomic conditions or broader crypto market dynamics deteriorate. Additionally, traders should remain cautious of short-term rebounds, as key resistance levels like $1.98 may act as dynamic hurdles, triggering profit-taking and reinforcing the bearish bias.

In conclusion, XRP's technical and sentiment profile in late 2025 paints a clear picture of structural weakness. The double-top pattern, reinforced by deteriorating on-chain metrics and institutional disengagement, positions the token for a prolonged bearish phase. Investors are advised to prioritize risk management and avoid overexposure to long positions in the absence of a definitive reversal signal.