XRP's Bearish Divergence and Path to $2.55–$2.65: A Technical and Strategic Deep Dive

The Bearish Case: Divergence, Structure, and On-Chain Signals

XRP's technical profile in September 2025 has become a focal point for traders and analysts, with bearish divergence patterns emerging as a critical warning sign. According to a report by Investing.com, the weekly MACD has registered lower highs while XRP's price has made higher ones, signaling weakening momentum and a high probability of a pullback into the $2.65–$2.55 rangeXRP: Weekly Bearish Divergence Signals Pullback Into $2.65–$2.55^[1]. This divergence is compounded by a descending triangle pattern on the daily chart, a classic bearish formation that could trigger a breakdown below the $2.75–$2.80 support zoneXRP in September 2025: Key Price Scenarios to Watch^[5].

Historical backtests of similar MACD top divergence signals from 2022 to 2025 show mixed results, with a 30-day average return of -3.36% for short positions. However, shorter holding periods (4-13 days) demonstrated a more favorable risk-reward profile for short positions.

On-chain data further reinforces the bearish narrative. Exchange reserves for XRP have surged, indicating increased selling pressure as large holders and institutions liquidate positionsXRP in September 2025: Key Price Scenarios to Watch^[5]. Meanwhile, the 200-day exponential moving average (EMA) at $2.60 acts as a critical psychological and technical floor. A breakdown below $2.75 would likely accelerate the decline toward this level, with further downside risks to $2.50 or even $2.20 if institutional selling intensifiesXRP in September 2025: Key Price Scenarios to Watch^[5].

Strategic Positioning: Key Levels and Catalysts

For traders considering near-term entry, the $2.75–$2.80 support range is pivotal. A failure to hold above this threshold would validate the bearish case, offering opportunities to short XRP into the $2.55–$2.65 target zone. However, the path is not without complexity. Whale accumulation of 340 million XRP over recent weeks suggests a potential base for a reboundXRP Price News: Breaks $2.80 as Bearish September Begins^[4], while the RSI and MACD indicate oversold conditions that could attract contrarian buyersXRP Price News: Breaks $2.80 as Bearish September Begins^[4].

A critical catalyst looms on September 18, 2025, with the launch of the Rex-Osprey spot XRP ETFXRP Price Prediction After Res-Osprey Spot ETF Launch on …^[2]. While this hybrid structure may limit immediate market impact compared to upcoming offerings from Franklin Templeton and WisdomTree, it could still provide a floor for XRP by institutionalizing demand. Analysts at CoinPedia suggest that a successful ETF launch, combined with the Federal Reserve's rate cut on September 17, could create short-term volatility and bullish momentumXRP Price Prediction After Res-Osprey Spot ETF Launch on …^[2]. However, these catalysts must overcome the broader bearish technical backdrop and historical September seasonality, which has historically seen XRP underperformXRP in September 2025: Key Price Scenarios to Watch^[5].

Risks and Broader Market Context

The broader macroeconomic environment adds layers of uncertainty. Bitcoin's weakening trend and U.S. stock markets' negative close last week have dragged down altcoins like XRPXRP Price Outlook: September 2025 Could Bring Bearish Sideways Action^[3]. Additionally, regulatory scrutiny remains a wildcard, with the SEC's ongoing legal battles casting a shadow over XRP's institutional adoption. While whale accumulation and ETF launches offer bullish undertones, the immediate technical picture—marked by bearish divergence and elevated exchange reserves—suggests a higher probability of sideways bearish action between $2.40 and $3.10XRP Price Outlook: September 2025 Could Bring Bearish Sideways Action^[3].

Conclusion: Navigating the Bearish Bias

For investors, the key takeaway is to prioritize risk management. Short-term traders may find value in targeting the $2.55–$2.65 range if XRP breaks below $2.75, while longer-term holders should monitor the Rex-Osprey ETF's performance and the 200-day EMA for potential support. However, the bearish divergence and on-chain signals indicate that aggressive bullish bets are premature. A balanced approach—hedging against downside risks while staying attuned to catalysts—remains the prudent strategy in this volatile environment.