XRP's Attractive Entry Point as SOPR Hits 6-Month Low

The Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) for XRP has plummeted to 0.95 as of October 13, 2025, marking a six-month low and signaling a critical inflection point for the asset, according to a Crypto Basic report. This metric, which measures whether coins are being sold at a profit or loss, now indicates widespread selling at a loss-a classic precursor to capitulation and subsequent price recovery. Historical patterns reinforce this narrative: a similar SOPR drop in early 2025 preceded a 35% rebound in XRP's price, surging from $1.90 to $2.58, the Crypto Basic report notes. If this trend repeats, XRP could target $3.10–$3.35, offering a compelling entry point for investors attuned to on-chain sentiment shifts.

On-Chain Accumulation: A Bullish Undercurrent

While SOPR highlights short-term pain, on-chain data reveals a contrasting story of accumulation. Institutional investors have poured $210 million into XRP in September 2025 alone, with over 439 million XRP withdrawn from exchanges, per a BeInCrypto report. This exodus from exchanges-where coins are typically sold-suggests growing confidence in XRP's utility, particularly in cross-border payments, and a strategic shift toward long-term holding.

Large holders, or "whales," are also capitalizing on dips. Despite a recent market crash that sent XRP from $2.8 to $1.58, whale activity has remained robust, with significant inflows into non-exchange wallets, the Crypto Basic report observed. This behavior mirrors pre-rally patterns observed in 2024, where whale accumulation during bearish phases laid the groundwork for multi-month bull runs.

Regulatory Catalysts and Market Dynamics

The most immediate catalyst for XRP lies in the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission's (SEC) approval of spot XRP ETFs in mid-October 2025, BeInCrypto writes. Analysts project this could unlock billions in institutional capital, with XRP's price potentially surging to $3.61 if it breaks above the $3.02 resistance level, the BeInCrypto piece adds. While October has historically been a weak month for XRP (average return: -4.5% over the past decade), the confluence of ETF-driven demand and on-chain strength may disrupt this pattern.

Risk and Reward: A Calculated Bet

Critics may argue that XRP's SOPR-driven recovery is speculative, given its history of volatility. However, the alignment of on-chain metrics-SOPR capitulation, exchange outflows, and whale accumulation-creates a compelling case for a near-term reversal. If the $3.02 resistance is breached, XRP could test its 2021 all-time high of $3.84, with some analysts projecting a $5–$10 target by year-end, per the BeInCrypto analysis.

For investors, the current SOPR low represents a rare opportunity to enter a market at a psychological inflection point. As one analyst noted, "When SOPR hits rock bottom, it's often the market's way of saying, 'This is a good price.'" the Crypto Basic report quoted the analyst as saying.

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