Is XRP Approaching a Technical Base for a Major Rebound?

The XRP price narrative in 2025 has become a tug-of-war between bullish exhaustion signals and bearish momentum divergence. With the cryptocurrency hovering near the $1.95–$2.00 psychological zone, traders are dissecting technical indicators to determine whether this is a setup for a rebound or a deeper correction.

The weekly Relative Strength Index (RSI) for XRP has dipped to 33, a level historically associated with downside exhaustion and early stabilization phases according to technical analysis. This metric, combined with on-chain activity and price action, paints a complex picture of a market at a crossroads.

RSI Divergence and Downside Exhaustion

The RSI, a momentum oscillator, has become a focal point for XRP analysts. While the weekly RSI at 33 suggests waning selling pressure, a bearish divergence has emerged: XRP has formed higher highs while the RSI traces lower highs indicating weakening momentum. This divergence typically signals weakening bullish momentum, even as price action tests critical support levels.

However, RSI exhaustion levels often precede trend reversals. In 2024, XRP's 3-day RSI hitting 39 triggered a 580% rally. A similar pattern is now unfolding, with the 3-day RSI nearing comparable levels in late 2025. This historical repetition has traders speculating that XRP could be entering a base-building phase, where consolidation precedes a breakout.

Support and Resistance: The $1.95–$2.00 Zone

The $1.95–$2.00 range is more than a psychological level-it's a confluence of technical and behavioral significance. According to a report by AltSignals, this zone represents a critical inflection point according to analysis. If buyers absorb supply here, XRP could transition from a downtrend to a recovery phase. Conversely, a breakdown below $1.80 would reinforce bearish exhaustion patterns, potentially dragging the price toward $1.55-a 25% drop from current levels as reported by analysts.

The descending triangle pattern broken at $2.20 further complicates the outlook. A failed breakout here has shifted focus to the $1.95–$2.00 zone as the next battleground. Traders are watching for a "golden cross" in the weekly RSI-a bullish signal where the 14-day RSI crosses above its 28-day moving average. Such a crossover could validate the $2.00 level as a springboard for a rally toward $3.65 or higher according to technical analysis.

Bearish Risks: Network Activity and Divergence

Despite bullish setups, bearish risks remain. XRP's network activity, including daily active addresses, remains muted compared to its 2024 peak according to trading data. This suggests reduced user engagement, which could prolong the consolidation phase or deepen the correction if institutional selling resumes.

The bearish divergence in the RSI also cannot be ignored. As stated by TradingView analysts, this pattern often precedes extended declines, particularly when combined with structural breakdowns like the failed $2.20 triangle according to technical analysis. A drop to $1.55 would test the 2024 lows and force a reevaluation of XRP's long-term trend.

Conclusion: A High-Stakes Technical Setup

XRP's current price action reflects a market in limbo. The RSI's mixed signals-downside exhaustion versus bearish divergence-highlight the tension between short-term buyers and long-term sellers. For a major rebound to materialize, buyers must defend the $1.95–$2.00 zone while triggering a RSI golden cross. A failure to do so would likely extend the bearish trajectory.

Investors should closely monitor the $2.00 level and the 3-day RSI for confirmation. If history repeats, XRP could mirror its 2024 rally. But without a clear breakout, the asset remains vulnerable to further corrections. In a market where momentum often dictates direction, the next few weeks will be pivotal in determining whether XRP is building a base or entering a new leg down.