XRP: Is the 60-85% Q4 Rally Imminent?

The question on many investors’ minds is whether XRP, the digital asset behind Ripple’s blockchain, is poised for a significant rebound in the fourth quarter of 2025. With the token currently consolidating near $2.70, technical and on-chain indicators suggest a potential market bottom is forming, but the path to a 60–85% rally hinges on critical support levels and broader market dynamics.

Technical Indicators: A Mixed but Encouraging Picture

XRP’s price action over the past month has painted a complex narrative. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) currently sits in the mid-50s, signaling neutral-to-bullish momentum without reaching overbought territory [2]. However, a reading of 43 in one analysis hints at slightly bearish conditions, underscoring a period of consolidation [3]. The 5-day moving average ($2.819934) and 200-day moving average ($2.509943) are narrowing, a potential precursor to a bearish crossover if weakness persists [3]. Conversely, the 50-day EMA remains above the 200-day EMA, a bullish long-term structure that could stabilize the price if buyers re-enter the market [3].

A descending triangle pattern on the XRP chart, with support at $2.70–$2.72 and resistance near $2.83, further emphasizes consolidation [2]. A breakout above $3.30 could target $4.00 and beyond, but this requires sustained volume and a bullish MACD crossover, which is currently converging [2]. The ADX reading of 20, however, signals no clear trend, a bearish sign as it suggests the recent bullish momentum is waning [3].

On-Chain Metrics: Accumulation and Leverage Reset

On-chain data provides a more nuanced view. XRP has experienced a 20% decline over 45 days, consolidating near $2.70, but key metrics indicate a potential bottom. Leverage ratios on Binance have normalized to yearly averages, reducing the risk of cascading liquidations and supporting price stability [1]. Net taker volume and aggregated spot cumulative volume delta (CVD) have shifted closer to neutral, suggesting holders may be entering accumulation mode [1].

The Network Value to Transactions (NVT) ratio, at 27.8, reflects XRP’s focus on transactional efficiency rather than store-of-value utility [2]. Meanwhile, exchange reserves have dropped from 3 billion to 2.9 billion XRP, signaling reduced selling pressure and strong investor conviction [1]. However, daily new addresses have plummeted by 80% in 2025, correlating with bearish sentiment and reduced retail activity [2].

Fractal Patterns and Analyst Predictions

Historical fractal patterns observed in Q1 2025 suggest a similar setup could lead to a 60–85% rebound into Q4 2025 [1]. Crypto trader Javon Marks has highlighted a bullish bias, noting that as long as XRP holds above $2.47, the price could rise to $4.80, a 66% increase [4]. Whale flows show signs of exhaustion, and accumulation zones may reemerge around $2.65–$2.33, potentially reversing market sentiment [3].

Risks and Considerations

While the technical and on-chain data point to a possible rebound, risks remain. The ADX’s lack of trend clarity and the RSI’s neutral stance suggest caution. A breakdown below $2.70 could trigger further declines toward $2.50 or $2.30 [3]. Additionally, the drop in daily active addresses from 557,000 to 34,000 raises questions about XRP’s long-term adoption [2].

Conclusion: A Calculated Bet for Q4

XRP’s path to a Q4 rally depends on its ability to hold key support levels and generate sustained buying pressure. The convergence of technical indicators like the MACD and on-chain signals such as normalized leverage ratios and reduced exchange reserves creates a compelling case for a rebound. However, investors must remain vigilant about the risks of a breakdown below $2.70 and the broader market’s appetite for altcoins. If the $2.70–$2.72 support zone holds, XRP could indeed see a 60–85% rally, but this outcome is far from guaranteed.

**Source:[1] XRP Stuck in Downtrend, but 3 Data Points Forecast 85% Rebound [https://cointelegraph.com/news/xrp-downtrend-extends-but-data-predicts-85percent-bounce][2] XRP vs Bitcoin: Mathematical Framework for Strategic ... [https://pocketoption.com/blog/en/interesting/reviews/xrp-vs-bitcoin/][3] XRP Trade Ideas — BITSTAMP:XRPUSD [https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/XRPUSD/ideas/?sort=recent&video=yes][4] Altcoins SEI, XRP, PNUT, and DOGE Show Bullish Signals [https://www.bitget.com/news/detail/12560604948570]