XRP's $5 Ascent Hinges on SEC ETF Approval and Breaking $3.07 Resistance

XRP has surged nearly 10% over two weeks, nearing its all-time high of $3.65, as traders speculate on potential catalysts for further gains. Analysts highlight the Federal Reserve’s 2025 rate cut as a key driver of liquidity into risk assets, with XRP showing signs of a structural breakout. Technical indicators, including a bull flag pattern and a larger ascending formation dating back to 2024, suggest price targets of $5 and $15, respectively. CoinCodex projects XRP could reclaim its $3.65 peak by December 6, with a potential secondary move toward $4 or higher, contingent on SEC approval of spot XRP ETFs and broader market inflows.

The SEC’s looming decision on multiple XRP ETF applications is viewed as a critical catalyst. Approval could replicate the institutional inflows seen with Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs, bolstering XRP’s adoption in cross-border payments. Ripple’s recent partnerships with DBS and Franklin Templeton, alongside its application for a national banking charter, further strengthen its institutional appeal. A successful banking charter approval, expected by late October 2025, would grant Ripple federal recognition as a trust bank, potentially accelerating adoption by global institutions.

Market sentiment is supported by on-chain data showing increased accumulation, with over 1.2 billion XRP moving to major exchange reserves in September 2025. Despite this, investors are shifting XRP off exchanges, signaling long-term confidence. The network has processed $24 million in new inflows, while the NVT ratio (valuation-to-transaction volume) spiked, indicating heightened adoption and short-term volatility. Technical analysis underscores a completed head-and-shoulders reversal pattern against Ethereum, suggesting XRP’s underperformance relative to other altcoins may be ending.

Short-term resistance at $3.07 is being tested, with a close above this level potentially unlocking targets of $3.65 and $4.50. Analysts caution that a pullback to $2.73 could trigger a correction, but long-term bullish momentum remains intact if institutional flows align with BTC and ETH trends. Coinpedia and Finance Magnates project XRP could reach $4.00 or $3.00, respectively, with Fibonacci retracement levels and Bollinger Band dynamics shaping near-term price action.

Ripple’s legal resolution with the SEC, finalized in June 2025, has removed regulatory uncertainty, with the company retaining $75 million of a $125 million escrowed penalty. This outcome clarifies XRP’s status as a non-security in secondary markets, boosting institutional confidence. The resolution, coupled with Ripple’s expansion into Africa and Asia, reinforces XRP’s utility in cross-border finance and aviation payment corridors.

Traders are closely monitoring key resistance levels, including $3.38 (Bollinger upper band) and $3.66, with a breakout potentially driving XRP toward $4.00. A failure to hold $3.00 support could trigger a deeper correction to $2.60–$2.70. The average September 2025 price forecast ranges between $2.80 and $3.20, with major upside contingent on regulatory developments.