XRP at $3: Bulls and Bears Clash as Fed Decision Nears

XRP has recently tested the $3 support level, marking a critical juncture for the token as market participants assess whether the bullish trend remains intact. The price surged past $3 with over 10% weekly gains, driven by anticipation of the Federal Reserve’s September 17 rate cut decisionXRP Breaks $3: Is It Still Early to Invest or Too Late?^[1]. Analysts suggest that the outcome of this meeting could significantly influence short-term price dynamics, with a near-certain rate reduction expected but the magnitude of the cut remaining a key variableXRP Breaks $3: Is It Still Early to Invest or Too Late?^[1]. Despite a recent pullback, the token has maintained control over key support levels, with $2.85–$2.90 acting as a safety netXRP Breaks $3: Is It Still Early to Invest or Too Late?^[1].

Technical analysis highlights a descending triangle pattern on the 12-hour chart, with XRP testing a nine-month consolidation ceiling near $3. A clean breakout above this level could signal a shift in momentum, with Fibonacci targets pointing to $3.10 and $3.40 as intermediate checkpointsXRP Price Prediction: $3.6 Incoming Next? The When and How of It^[2]. Analyst Ali Martinez projects a potential ascent to $3.60 if buyers sustain the rally, while Casi Trades notes longer-term Fibonacci extensions toward $4.50XRP Price Prediction: $3.6 Incoming Next? The When and How of It^[2]. On-chain data reveals rising open interest in futures markets, reaching $7.9 billion, indicating increased capital commitment to directional betsXRP Price Prediction: $3.6 Incoming Next? The When and How of It^[2]. This aligns with the nine-month consolidation period, which often precedes stronger breakouts when trends resolveXRP Price Prediction: $3.6 Incoming Next? The When and How of It^[2].

Market sentiment remains divided, with conflicting signals emerging from on-chain activity. Whale distribution has intensified, with large wallets offloading 470 million XRP in recent days, valued at approximately $1.35 billionXRP Price Sinks Below $3 — Why You Should Wait Before Buying^[3]. This contrasts with bullish indicators like the Bull Bear Power (BBP) metric, which recently entered negative territory, signaling seller dominanceXRP Price Sinks Below $3 — Why You Should Wait Before Buying^[3]. However, the token’s low adoption rate—only 1 in 5,000 people hold XRP—fuels optimism among some investors, who argue that global awareness is still in its infancyXRP Breaks $3: Is It Still Early to Invest or Too Late?^[1]. Institutional developments, such as BBVA’s integration of Ripple Custody, have added infrastructure support, though price action remains dependent on technical validationXRP Price Prediction: $3.6 Incoming Next? The When and How of It^[2].

Short-term volatility has been amplified by the interplay between Fibonacci levels and momentum tools. A decisive close above $3.00 on the 12-hour or daily chart would confirm the breakout, with subsequent targets at $3.10 and $3.40XRP Price Prediction: $3.6 Incoming Next? The When and How of It^[2]. Conversely, a slip below $2.75 could expose deeper corrections, with $2.65 acting as a critical structural thresholdXRP Price Prediction: $3.6 Incoming Next? The When and How of It^[2]. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) currently hovers in neutral territory, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has flashed a bearish crossover, adding complexity to the outlookXRP Price Sinks Below $3 — Why You Should Wait Before Buying^[3].

Looking ahead, the token’s trajectory will hinge on the Fed’s rate cut and broader macroeconomic conditions. A 25-basis-point reduction is priced at 99% by futures markets, which could bolster dollar liquidity and drive crypto flowsXRP Price News: Consolidates Under $3 as Descending Triangle …^[4]. Whale activity will also remain under scrutiny, as continued large-scale accumulation could reinforce the consolidation floorXRP Price News: Consolidates Under $3 as Descending Triangle …^[4]. The SEC’s October rulings on spot XRP ETF applications represent a longer-term catalyst, with approval potentially unlocking structural institutional inflowsXRP Price News: Consolidates Under $3 as Descending Triangle …^[4].

In summary, XRP’s price is at a crossroads: a push above $3.18 on strong volume would validate the bullish case, while stagnation risks a test of the $3.00 support. Traders are advised to monitor volume-backed moves beyond these thresholds to gauge the prevailing trend.