XRP's 2035 Worst-Case Scenario: Is $8 a Reasonable Target or a Missed Opportunity?

The resolution of the SEC vs. Ripple case in August 2025 marked a pivotal moment for XRP, offering regulatory clarity that initially drove the token to an all-time high of $3.65. However, the subsequent price correction to a $2.5–$3.1 range and the mixed long-term forecasts have left investors grappling with a critical question: Is a 2035 price target of $8 a realistic benchmark, or does it underestimate the risks and competition that could cap XRP's growth? This analysis evaluates the interplay of regulatory outcomes, utility adoption, and bearish headwinds to determine whether XRP's potential justifies holding the token for a decade.

Regulatory Clarity: A Double-Edged Sword

The 2025 settlement with the SEC established a nuanced framework for XRP, classifying it as a non-security in retail transactions but restricting institutional sales in the U.S. This outcome provided immediate relief to the crypto market, signaling that not all tokens are securities and encouraging innovation according to capital.com analysis. Ripple's $50 million settlement and commitment to cease direct institutional sales in the U.S. also mitigated further legal risks as reported by openexo.

However, regulatory clarity is not a permanent shield. While the 2025 ruling reduced uncertainty, future U.S. administrations or international regulators could reinterpret the framework, particularly if XRP's utility expands into new domains like decentralized finance (DeFi) or stablecoin issuance. For instance, the launch of RLUSD-a stablecoin with a $1.3 billion market cap-demonstrates Ripple's ambition to diversify its ecosystem, but such moves could attract scrutiny from regulators wary of uncollateralized or algorithmic stablecoins as noted by Yahoo Finance.

Utility Adoption: The Path to Intrinsic Value

XRP's long-term price trajectory hinges on its ability to maintain relevance in cross-border payments and expand into new use cases. Ripple's On-Demand Liquidity (ODL) service, which leverages XRP to facilitate real-time, low-cost international transactions, has seen growing adoption among financial institutions according to cryptorank. This utility provides a floor for XRP's value, as demand for the token is tied to real-world transaction volumes.

Moreover, Ripple's acquisition of financial services firms and the approval of XRP spot ETFs in 2025 suggest a shift toward institutional adoption as detailed by capital.com. If XRP becomes a staple in institutional portfolios, even modest ETF inflows could drive significant price appreciation. For example, models predict that $10 billion in ETF inflows by late 2026 could push XRP to $6–$8, depending on market conditions as forecasted by 247wallst.

Yet, utility adoption is not guaranteed. The XRP Ledger's integration into DeFi and NFT ecosystems remains nascent compared to Ethereum or Solana. Without robust developer activity or enterprise partnerships, XRP risks becoming a niche asset in a rapidly evolving market according to Bitget.

Competition: CBDCs, SWIFT, and the Next-Gen Payment Race

XRP's primary value proposition-cross-border payments-faces mounting competition from central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) and SWIFT's modernized infrastructure. Over 100 countries are exploring CBDCs, which could displace XRP by offering government-backed, low-cost alternatives for remittances as analyzed by thecryptobasic. Similarly, SWIFT's recent upgrades to its global payment system have reduced transaction times and fees, directly challenging Ripple's ODL model as reported by Bitget.

Additionally, stablecoins like USDC and USDT dominate the remittance corridor, leveraging their first-mover advantage and regulatory compliance. While XRP's speed and cost-efficiency are compelling, its adoption will depend on Ripple's ability to differentiate itself in a crowded market.

Bearish Risks: The $8 Target in a Worst-Case Scenario

The $8 price target for 2035 is often cited as a "worst-case" scenario by analysts like Google Gemini, who highlight risks such as regulatory setbacks, macroeconomic volatility, and limited real-world use as discussed in thecryptobasic analysis. A bearish case could materialize if:
1. Regulatory headwinds resurface: A new SEC chair or international regulatory body could reclassify XRP as a security, triggering a sell-off.
2. CBDCs and SWIFT dominate: If legacy systems and state-backed digital currencies outpace XRP's adoption, its utility could stagnate.
3. Market saturation: The proliferation of payment tokens and DeFi protocols could dilute XRP's relevance.

Conversely, a $8 price in 2035 would represent a 200% return from current levels, assuming XRP trades at $3.1 by late 2025. This outcome is plausible under moderate adoption scenarios, where XRP maintains its role in cross-border payments but fails to break into DeFi or institutional portfolios as projected by finst.

Is $8 a Missed Opportunity?

While $8 is achievable in a worst-case scenario, it may represent a conservative estimate. Optimistic forecasts from Telegaon and Dune Analytics suggest XRP could reach $40.29 or $7 by 2035, contingent on aggressive adoption and regulatory tailwinds as noted in thecryptobasic analysis. The token's potential to benefit from ETF inflows, RLUSD's success, and cross-border payment growth further supports a higher ceiling.

However, investors must weigh these possibilities against the risks. A diversified portfolio that includes XRP alongside safer assets like gold or blue-chip stocks could balance exposure to its upside while mitigating downside risk. For those with a high-risk tolerance and a long-term horizon, XRP's unique position in the payment sector and its post-SEC clarity make it a compelling case study in utility-driven value creation.

Conclusion

The $8 price target for XRP in 2035 is neither a missed opportunity nor an overambitious stretch-it is a midpoint in a spectrum of outcomes shaped by regulatory, technological, and competitive forces. While bearish risks like CBDCs and macroeconomic volatility could cap its growth, XRP's entrenched role in cross-border payments and Ripple's strategic expansions provide a foundation for moderate appreciation. Investors should approach XRP with a nuanced lens, recognizing its potential to outperform in a bull case but preparing for a more conservative trajectory in a worst-case scenario.