XRP's 2026 Flow: Stablecoin Growth vs. Price Pressure

Ripple has no plans to go public in 2026. President Monica Long confirmed on January 6 that the company intends to remain private, citing a strong balance sheet and no need for public market capital. This decision removes a potential supply overhang from the market, as the company has ample funds to fuel its growth without the pressure or disclosure burden of an IPO.

The capital is substantial. Ripple raised $500 million in November 2025 at a $40 billion valuation, a round that attracted major players like Fortress Investment Group and Citadel Securities. This, combined with a prior $1 billion tender offer and the repurchase of more than 25% of its outstanding shares, provides the liquidity and flexibility Long says the company already has. The focus has been on building institutional infrastructure, with nearly $4 billion in acquisitions completed in 2025.

Yet, the market's attention remains fixed on price action and ETF flows. Despite this strong capital position, XRP has dropped 5% in the last 24 hours even as spot ETFs attracted $19 million in inflows on January 6th. The unexpected withdrawal of a spot XRP ETF plan by WisdomTree Digital Commodity Services added to the pressure. The bottom line is that Ripple's private status and deep pockets are a fundamental backdrop, but they do not shield the token from the immediate volatility driven by on-chain flows and speculative positioning.

Regulatory Clarity: The August 2025 Ceiling Lift

The August 2025 settlement with the SEC was a structural reset. It removed the multi-year legal overhang that had suppressed XRP's price and capped institutional access. This clarity directly enabled the growth of compliant financial products on the XRP Ledger, creating a new path for regulated capital.

One of the clearest outcomes is the explosive rise of Ripple's USD-backed stablecoin, RLUSD. It reached a $1.26 billion market cap in under a year, becoming the third-largest U.S.-regulated stablecoin. This growth is not just a token metric; it's a signal of institutional re-entry into the ecosystem.

RLUSD's supply jumped 28% in November alone, driven by strategic exchange listings and institutional pilots. This expansion burns XRP as network fees, creating a direct, deflationary link between the stablecoin's adoption and XRP's circulating supply. The regulatory foundation, built on a New York trust charter and 1:1 backing, is what allowed this rapid, compliant growth to occur.

The Flow Engine: RLUSD's Deflationary Impact

Every RLUSD transaction on the XRP Ledger burns XRP as a network fee, creating a direct, quantifiable deflationary mechanism for the native asset. This is not a theoretical link; it's a built-in financial flow where the growth of the stablecoin ecosystem systematically reduces XRP's circulating supply.

The scale of this flow is now in the billions. RLUSD's market cap hit $1.26 billion in under a year, making it the third-largest U.S.-regulated stablecoin. Its supply jumped 28% in November alone, driven by strategic exchange listings and institutional pilots. This explosive adoption is the primary institutional-grade flow currently active on the XRP Ledger.

Yet, this powerful deflationary engine is being overwhelmed. The volume of XRP being burned through RLUSD transactions is currently dwarfed by broader market selling pressure. The token's price has dropped 5% in the last 24 hours, a move that suggests the outflow of capital from speculative positions far exceeds the inflow of capital represented by stablecoin growth. For now, the flow of money out of XRP is stronger than the flow of XRP being burned.

The Price Pressure Test: ETF Inflows vs. Macro Sell-Off

Despite strong institutional demand, XRP's price is under severe pressure from a broad market sell-off. The token is down 22% over the past week, trading in a $1.60–$1.90 band after a brutal washout. This move mirrors a systemic risk-off wave that crashed Bitcoin through $80,000 and sent Ethereum toward $2,250, flushing leverage across the board.

The institutional flow data shows a stark contrast. While majors saw outflows, XRP-backed ETFs attracted $16.79 million in fresh capital in a single session. This marks a sharp inflection after a $92 million withdrawal wave, with all four major funds logging net inflows. The total ETF footprint now manages about $1.19 billion in assets, with nearly all raised since their November 2025 launch.

The bottom line is that XRP is behaving like a high-beta alt in a stressed macro tape. The ETFs show robust liquidity and a pattern of institutions adding on drawdowns, not chasing strength. Yet, the price action confirms that in a violent market reset, even solid institutional flows cannot shield a token from the broader deleveraging tide.

The Forward Flow: RWA Growth and the DeFi Flywheel

The XRP Ledger is now one of the top 10 blockchains for real-world asset (RWA) activity, a position that signals a critical shift toward institutional finance. This isn't a speculative trend; it's a foundational move where the ledger is being used to manage tokenized assets, creating a new, quantifiable demand for XRP as a settlement and bridge asset. The managed asset value on XRPL is moving sharply higher, suggesting the network is being pulled into the institutional orbit Ripple has targeted for years.

New institutional features are scaling these use cases. Multi-purpose tokens (MPT), permissioned domains, and the upcoming XLS-65/66 lending protocol are designed to meet regulatory and risk-management requirements for on-chain credit and payments. These tools, combined with live features like Confidential Transfers and Batch Transactions, are building an "end-to-end operating system for real-world finance." The goal is to create a flywheel where institutional adoption drives more utility, which in turn attracts more capital and assets.

The key watchpoint is whether this onboarding can accelerate enough to offset macro volatility. Current adoption is still nascent, with the broader market dominated by speculative flows. For XRP to find sustained price support, the RWA growth must transition from a promising trend to a dominant flow. If it does, it could create a powerful, deflationary demand engine that burns XRP as a settlement fee, directly linking the token's utility to the expansion of regulated financial markets.