XRP's $2.88 Pivotal: Buy Wall's Resilience Tested by Bearish Triangle

XRP’s price trajectory remains at a critical juncture as technical indicators and on-chain data highlight a standoff between a bearish triangle pattern and a buy wall. The cryptocurrency is currently trading near $2.88, with market participants closely monitoring whether it can reclaim the $2.30–$2.40 range to absorb a buy wall that has supported the asset since late 2025 . Analysts have identified a symmetrical triangle formation, a consolidation pattern that could resolve with a directional breakout, either reinforcing bullish momentum or triggering further declines .

The buy wall, concentrated between $2.20 and $2.23, has been a key support level for XRP. Failure to hold above this range could lead to a breakdown toward $1.85, a level last seen in early December. Conversely, a successful retest of $2.30 may validate the buy wall’s strength and propel the price toward $2.95–$3.04, with potential long-term targets at $3.65–$4.20 if the triangle pattern resolves favorably . Recent on-chain activity suggests growing whale accumulation, with large holders (1M–10M XRP) increasing their holdings by 10% in two months, while network activity has surged over 400% since early March .

However, derivatives markets present a conflicting narrative. Open interest in XRP futures has declined by 54% over three weeks, signaling thinning liquidity and heightened volatility risks . Negative funding rates in perpetual contracts indicate hesitance among futures traders, with long positions liquidated in the $2.40–$2.60 range during a recent 14% price rally . This divergence between on-chain strength and derivatives weakness underscores the uncertainty surrounding short-term price direction.

Technical analysts have highlighted key levels to watch. A TD Sequential buy signal near $2.95 suggests potential exhaustion of bearish momentum, with resistance at $3.04–$3.10 offering a critical test for bulls . Meanwhile, the symmetrical triangle on the XRPBTC pair could drive the price toward $3.65 if buyers commit to breaking above the pattern’s upper boundary . On the downside, a breakdown below the $2.780 support level could extend the decline to $2.650, with further risks of a retest of the $2.40–$2.13 consolidation range .

Institutional factors also play a pivotal role. Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse has reiterated confidence in an XRP ETF launch by late 2025, citing growing regulatory clarity after the SEC dropped its case against the company . This development, combined with rising institutional demand for Ethereum and broader crypto adoption, has bolstered optimism about XRP’s long-term prospects. Whale activity, including a $2.2 billion accumulation by large holders in the past 30 days, further reinforces the narrative of strategic positioning for future upside .

The outcome hinges on whether XRP can break free of its current technical confines. A decisive move above $2.90–$3.04, supported by rising volume and institutional buying, could catalyze a rally toward $3.65–$4.20. Conversely, a sustained breakdown below $2.780 may reignite bearish sentiment, pushing the price toward $2.40 or lower. Market participants will be watching closely for confirmation of either scenario, as the resolution of this standoff could define XRP’s trajectory in the coming months.