XRP's 13% Rally vs. Whale Profit-Taking: A Window into Market Strength or Looming Correction?

Whale Activity and Profit-Taking: A Double-Edged Sword

On-chain data reveals a volatile interplay between institutional profit-taking and retail resilience. Between October 2 and 12, long-term holder wallets reduced XRP holdings by 27%, with over 440 million tokens offloaded to exchanges like Binance and Coinbase, according to a Finbold report. This selling spree pushed prices below $2.50 and triggered a 15-20% drop in days, Coinotag reported. However, the subsequent 66% rebound-restoring $75 billion in market cap-suggests that buyers stepped in at critical levels.

The Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) for XRP fell to 0.95 during the crash, a historically bearish indicator of capitulation, per Coinotag's analysis. Yet this metric also signals potential exhaustion among sellers, as capitulation phases often precede rebounds. The key question is whether the recent buying interest reflects genuine accumulation or a temporary reprieve before renewed profit-taking.

Institutional Confidence and Order Book Depth: A Glimmer of Stability

Amid the chaos, institutional actors have signaled cautious optimism. Evernorth Holdings, a Ripple-backed firm, accumulated 388.7 million XRP tokens ($1 billion+), triggering an 8.6% price surge, according to TheCryptoBasic report. This accumulation, coupled with $60 million in net exchange outflows, suggests a shift toward accumulation rather than liquidation, a view advanced in a CoinEdition analysis.

Order book depth analysis further supports this narrative, as FX Empire reported. Strong buy liquidity at $2.35–$2.40 and reduced resistance above $2.60 indicate strategic positioning by larger market participants FX Empire. The 20-day EMA at $2.68 and an ascending trendline convergence at $2.60 have become pivotal support zones, the CoinEdition analysis noted. If buyers defend this area, XRP could test $2.73–$2.94 resistance, a range historically tied to institutional entry points.

Investor Sentiment and Regulatory Uncertainty: A Ticking Clock

Despite bullish on-chain signals, investor sentiment remains mixed. The fear/greed index for XRP trends toward negative territory, exacerbated by Western Union's decision to adopt Solana's blockchain over XRP for its USDPT stablecoin, as reported in TheCryptoBasic feature. Critics argue this undermines XRP's role in cross-border payments, with one influencer calling it "embarrassing to hold XRP in 2025," a point the TheCryptoBasic piece highlighted.

However, regulatory developments offer a counterbalance. The Market Structure Bill, backed by the White House and bipartisan lawmakers, could provide clarity for XRP ETFs and institutional adoption, a development FX Empire covered. Delays caused by the U.S. government shutdown remain a wildcard, but the bill's passage would likely catalyze a breakout above $2.50, FX Empire suggested.

Conclusion: A Fragile Equilibrium

XRP's 13% rally reflects a tug-of-war between profit-taking whales and institutional buyers. While on-chain metrics like SOPR and order book depth suggest a potential base is forming, the asset's reliance on regulatory tailwinds and institutional confidence introduces significant risk. The coming weeks will test whether the $2.60 support holds-and whether the market can reconcile whale selling with broader adoption narratives. For now, XRP remains a high-volatility asset, where every price move is a referendum on its long-term utility in a rapidly evolving crypto landscape.