Is XRP's $1.95 Resistance a Critical Crossroads for Bullish Momentum?

The XRP price action in late 2025 has crystallized into a high-stakes technical battleground, with the $1.95 level emerging as a pivotal inflection point. This level, once a psychological floor, now sits at the intersection of Fibonacci retracement dynamics, diverging moving averages, and contested support/resistance zones. For investors, the question is no longer whether XRP can break above $1.95, but whether this level represents a catalyst for a sustained bullish reversal or a final gasp for fading longs.

Failed Breakouts and Fibonacci Dynamics

XRP's recent price trajectory has been defined by repeated failures to sustainably clear key resistance levels. The $2.00 threshold, once a critical support, collapsed in late 2025 under macroeconomic and Bitcoin-driven rotation pressures, shifting the narrative to a bearish correction phase. Bulls have since attempted to reclaim this ground, with a brief rebound from $1.8177 pushing prices above $2.00 and breaking a bearish trend line. However, the 76.4% Fibonacci retracement level-calculated from the $1.77 to $2.59 swing-has become a de facto ceiling, with $2.150 marking the next critical test for buyers according to technical analysis.

The Fibonacci framework further complicates the outlook. The $1.95 level corresponds to the 23.6% retracement within the $1.77–$1.9578 upward movement, while the 50% level sits at $1.8650 and the 61.8% level near $1.63 as per technical indicators. A failure to breach $1.9550 could see XRP retest the $1.80–$1.7750 range, whereas a successful breakout might trigger a rally toward $2.00 and beyond. The 138.2% extension target at $4.17 remains a distant aspirational goal, contingent on a sustained bullish reversal.

The MACD/RSI Signals: Diverging Momentum
Technical indicators paint a mixed picture. The 14-day RSI has oscillated between 33 and 38 over the past week, reflecting neutral to bearish momentum but hinting at potential stabilization. While not overbought or oversold, this range suggests a tug-of-war between buyers and sellers. The MACD, meanwhile, remains negative, with the histogram printing below zero-a bearish signal-though its flatness on daily and hourly charts indicates waning downside pressure.

On the daily chart, XRP's proximity to the 10-day EMA at $1.96 underscores the dynamic resistance role of this level. A confirmed breakout above $1.95 with volume confirmation could trigger a retest of the $2.00–$2.20 range, but bears retain control if the RSI fails to cross above 50 or the MACD fails to turn positive according to market analysis.

Support/Resistance Zones: A Battle for Market Structure

The $1.95 level is not merely a Fibonacci marker but a psychological and structural fulcrum. Below it, the $1.83–$1.90 band has shown signs of waning selling pressure, with accumulation attempts visible in on-chain data. A decisive break below $1.83 would shift focus to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at $1.63, potentially signaling a deeper correction according to technical analysis. Conversely, a sustained move above $2.00 could initiate a corrective bounce, testing $2.20–$2.30 as higher resistance as per market reports.

The 200-day SMA at $2.59 remains a distant bearish anchor, but the 30-day SMA at $2.06 suggests short-term bearish control persists according to technical indicators. This divergence between short- and long-term moving averages highlights the market's indecision-a classic setup for a breakout or breakdown.

Strategic Entry/Exit Points and Risk-Reward Scenarios

For bulls, the $1.95 level represents a high-risk, high-reward entry point. A confirmed close above this level with volume confirmation could justify a target of $2.150, with a stop-loss placed below $1.83 to mitigate downside risk according to technical analysis. A successful breakout might then extend toward $2.20–$2.30, with the 138.2% extension at $4.17 as a long-term aspirational target contingent on sustained bullish momentum.

Bears, however, should remain cautious. The RSI's stabilization near 33 on the weekly chart and the MACD's flattening suggest that downside momentum is losing steam according to market analysis. A retest of $1.95 with higher lows could signal a trend reversal, particularly if institutional adoption and ETF inflows gain traction as per market reports.

Conclusion: A Crossroads, Not a Certainty

XRP's $1.95 resistance is indeed a critical crossroads, but its significance hinges on the resolution of a broader tug-of-war between technical and fundamental forces. While Fibonacci levels and moving averages suggest a bearish bias in the short term, the weakening MACD and RSI stabilization hint at potential stabilization. Investors must weigh the risk of a breakdown toward $1.63 against the possibility of a bullish breakout toward $2.20. In this high-stakes environment, patience and strict risk management will be paramount.