XRP's $1.80–$1.87 Support Zone and the $1.1B ETF Inflow Bull Case

The XRP market in late 2025 is a study in contrasts. On one hand, the U.S. spot XRP ETFs launched in mid-November have attracted over $1 billion in inflows within four weeks, marking the fastest institutional adoption since Ethereum ETFs. This surge has tightened exchange-held XRP supply by 45% in 60 days, signaling robust structural demand. Yet, despite these bullish fundamentals, XRP's price has plummeted 45% from its July 2025 peak of $3.66 to $1.88 by December, driven by macroeconomic headwinds and aggressive profit-taking by whales and early investors according to market analysis.

The ETF Bull Case: Structural Demand and Supply Tightening

The ETF-driven bull case for XRP hinges on two pillars: institutional adoption and exchange supply dynamics. With a $1.25 billion in assets under management, these ETFs have created a consistent demand pipeline, particularly as exchange balances shrink. This reduction in circulating supply-now at 2.6 billion XRP-has historically correlated with price resilience in other crypto assets. Analysts argue that the ETFs' ability to absorb selling pressure could eventually stabilize XRP's price, especially if institutional inflows continue to outpace retail or whale distributions.

However, the ETF narrative is not without caveats. While inflows have surged, they have yet to offset the magnitude of institutional selling. For instance, a seven-year-old whale address realized $721.5 million in gains by offloading XRP accumulated at $0.40 to $2.00. Such activity reflects broader on-chain profit-taking, with realized gains surging 240% since September. This suggests that ETF-driven demand, while significant, is currently outmatched by the liquidity extraction of long-term holders.

Short-Term Bearish Technicals: A Critical Support Zone Under Pressure

Technically, XRP is now testing the $1.80–$1.87 range-a key demand area identified by multiple analysts. This zone is anchored by a multi-year ascending trendline near $1.87 and has historically acted as a psychological floor for the asset. A breakdown below $1.85 could expose the $1.77–$1.80 range, while a rebound might trigger a retest of $1.90–$1.91.

The current price action forms a descending triangle pattern, with $1.95 as resistance and $1.85 as support according to technical analysis. Crucially, volume dynamics have confirmed bearish sentiment: the breakdown near $1.90 was accompanied by high-volume selling, indicative of institutional distribution. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has shown mild bullish divergence, hinting at potential short-term stabilization.

ETF Accumulation vs. Institutional Selling: A Tug-of-War

The interplay between ETF-driven accumulation and institutional selling is shaping XRP's near-term trajectory. While ETF inflows hit $666.6 million in December, they have struggled to counteract the bearish structure created by whale activity. Large holders in the 100K–1M XRP and 1M+ XRP bands have been net sellers, contributing to a tightening range between $1.85 and $1.91 according to market data.

This tug-of-war is further complicated by market sentiment. According to Gemini data, 73% of users expect XRP to finish 2025 between $1.50 and $2.00, underscoring a bearish bias. Yet, the ETFs' ability to absorb selling pressure could still act as a floor. If XRP stabilizes above $1.87, the technical setup would suggest a potential rebound toward $1.90–$1.91, reigniting bullish momentum.

Conclusion: A Pivotal Test for the ETF Bull Case

XRP's $1.1B ETF inflow bull case remains intact, but its validity now hinges on the $1.80–$1.87 support zone. If this area holds, it could signal a shift in balance from institutional selling to ETF-driven accumulation, potentially catalyzing a recovery. Conversely, a breakdown below $1.85 would likely accelerate the sell-off, testing the $1.77 level. Investors must closely monitor volume dynamics and whale activity, as these will determine whether the ETFs can ultimately offset the bearish technicals and institutional pressures.

In the broader context, XRP's performance in this critical range will serve as a litmus test for the ETF-driven bull thesis. A successful defense of $1.87 could reinforce confidence in the ETFs' structural demand, while a failure might force a reevaluation of the asset's short-term prospects.