XRP at $1.37: Can 26% Down Still Catch a New All-Time High, or Is This Peak XRP?

XRP at $1.37: why the bullish case still exists despite weak price action

XRP looks like one of the less convincing bullish setups in recent months: trading at $1.37, roughly 26% down year-to-date and still below key exponential moving averages, even as cumulative ETF inflows have exceeded $1.44 billion. The price chart and the flow data are telling different stories.

Bulls focus on flows; bears focus on structure

Bulls still see a path to a new all-time high if ETF inflows keep building and spot XRP ETF cumulative inflows remain supportive. In that view, weak price reflects macro pressure and forced liquidations rather than a broken long-term setup.

Bears look at the same tape and see a market that has not confirmed the story yet. XRP is still below key moving averages, RSI sits at 43, and price remains far below the July 2025 cycle high. The argument is not that adoption disappeared; it is that damaged price structure can linger longer than bulls expect.

The core tension is simple: XRP has some asset-specific support, but it still appears tied to the broader crypto market. Until that wider backdrop improves, strong inflows do not guarantee an immediate breakout.

Why the bull case improved once legal clarity arrived

The main change is structural: once legal uncertainty resolved and the path to product approval cleared, XRP became easier for regulated products and institutional allocators to access. That matters more than a single flashy pump because it changes who can buy, how they buy, and how durable that demand might be.

ETF access broadened the buyer base

The evidence points to steady, not chaotic, demand. Ripple noted that XRP became one of the more actively adopted digital assets in the regulated spot ETF space toward the end of 2025, and outside tracking shows the total ETF inflow ... has reached more than $1.4 billion. That does not prove a lasting trend by itself, but it does show that XRP is no longer just an OTC retail trade.

Bears can argue that ETFs are only another momentum vehicle. That is fair. But the early tape was unusually clean: continuous investment for 24 consecutive days and no net outflows in the first phase after launch suggest persistence, not one-day enthusiasm.

Live settlement activity adds a second leg to the story

The other part of the bullish argument is utility. On May 5, Ondo Finance, Kinexys by JPMorgan, Mastercard, and Ripple completed the first near-real-time cross-border, cross-bank redemption of a tokenised U.S. Treasury fund on the XRP Ledger, with settlement in under five seconds.

That is still best treated as a credibility boost rather than full proof of sustained token demand. It shows XRP Ledger use moving beyond pilots in headline form, which helps the case that XRP has more than just a regulatory narrative behind it.

Why the chart still looks weak after the 2025 pullback

The flows have not erased the chart because large drawdowns leave lasting supply overhang. XRP reached $3.66 during 2025, then fell to $1.58 in October before finishing the year near $1.85. A move like that leaves many trapped buyers, so every rebound can face selling from holders looking to exit at breakeven.

Headline wins no longer produce automatic follow-through

This is why good news stopped producing lasting upside on its own. The market already experienced a post-legal-clarity rally, then another lift tied to ETF launch momentum, followed by reversals. The lesson for traders is straightforward: removing regulatory fear helps, but it does not remove existing sell pressure or guarantee that new buyers can absorb it immediately.

Ripple's network activity is real, but the token benefit is still debated

Ripple's payment network is tangible. It processed $15 billion in cross-border flows during 2024. The harder question is whether that activity meaningfully tightens XRP supply or creates sustained demand for the token itself rather than just for Ripple's broader ecosystem.

That is why the bearish technical view still has weight. Even with legal clarity and ETF launches behind it, XRP failed to lock in a durable breakout right away, which says the market still wants clearer confirmation.

Will XRP ever hit a new all-time high?

A new all-time high is still possible, but it now depends more on timing and confirmation than on narrative alone. The bull case rests on two developing threads: spot XRP ETF cumulative inflows and growing production use of the XRP Ledger for settlement activity. Those are stronger foundations than a single-headline move, but they still have to overcome a damaged price structure.

What would strengthen the setup from here?

• Flows remain positive instead of stalling.
• Price regains and holds levels above the current consolidation zone.
• $1.63 support keeps acting as a floor while leadership attempts recover the upper part of the range.

What would weaken it?

• ETF inflows cool sharply.
• $1.63 support breaks while cumulative ETF inflows have exceeded $1.44 billion remain the main bullish argument.
• Ripple's ecosystem progress continues, but the market still does not treat it as a durable token-demand story.

From here, the question is not whether XRP has a credible narrative. It does. The question is whether that narrative can translate into sustained price leadership before trapped sellers and macro weakness keep capping the move.