XRP's $1.11 Low: A Flow-Based Path to $4 and $10

The recent sell-off has been severe, with XRP plunging roughly 70% from its recent peak of $3.66 to test the $1.11 level. This dramatic drop was triggered by a broader market downturn, as Bitcoin fell from nearly $79,700 to $60,000, shaking investor confidence across the sector. The move has pushed sentiment sharply into fear, with the Milk Road Crypto Fear & Greed Index indicating a clear shift from 'Greed' to 'Fear' as the dominant market emotion.

This phase represents a classic distribution, where capital is being taken off the table. However, the flow is now beginning to reverse. Price action has entered a critical accumulation zone between $1.50 and $1.30. Analysts note that this price range has historically attracted sustained demand, making it a logical area for structured buying during a broader correction. The shift from a distribution phase to this accumulation zone marks a potential turning point in the flow of capital.

The key question now is whether this accumulation will be sufficient to halt the decline. While some see the current zone as a waiting phase for long-term holders, others caution that a break below $1.30 could trigger further downside to the $0.90-$0.70 range. For now, the flow is focused on this tight band, where patient capital may be positioning for the next leg up.

The Accumulation Flow: Whale Activity and Key Levels

The capital flow into the identified accumulation zone is structured and high-conviction. Price action has entered a critical range between $1.50 and $1.30, a level that has historically attracted sustained demand during market corrections. This isn't random buying; it's a deliberate positioning by veteran holders who see the current dip as familiar territory from past cycles. Analyst CryptoBull, who has held through previous brutal drops, now targets $4 as the first level to confirm renewed strength, framing the current zone as a waiting phase for long-term accumulation.

Evidence of this structured flow is emerging. CryptoBull himself has a track record of holding through past crashes, a pattern he says rewards patience. More concretely, a long-time investor placed a $1 million buy order for XRP at $1 earlier today, a clear signal of high-conviction accumulation at extreme lows. Other investors, like YouTuber Zach Rector, have also disclosed plans to buy under $1. Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse has subtly urged market participants to buy the dip, adding institutional weight to the accumulation narrative.

The bottom line is that the flow is shifting from distribution to a patient, layered accumulation. While the broader market remains volatile and sentiment is fearful, the targeted buying at these levels suggests a belief that the downside risk is being priced in. The key will be whether this capital can stabilize the price above the $1.30 support and eventually drive a move back toward the $4 target.

The Path to $4 and $10: Flow Triggers and Catalysts

The flow-based path to $4 and $10 requires a sequence of specific catalysts that shift the market structure from accumulation to sustained bullish momentum. The primary trigger for a trend change is a clear bullish divergence on key technical indicators, coupled with a decisive move above the declining moving average ribbon. This would confirm that the patient accumulation phase is complete and that selling pressure has been absorbed. Without this technical validation, the price remains vulnerable to further volatility and could break down toward the $0.90-$0.70 range.

The $4 target is contingent on broader crypto market sentiment improving and Bitcoin regaining momentum above its recent lows around $60,000. XRP's price action is heavily correlated with Bitcoin's, and a sustained rally in the flagship asset is necessary to lift the entire sector. The current environment of fear and volatility, where XRP trades below key moving averages, shows that this condition is not yet met. A move toward $4 would signal that the accumulation zone between $1.50 and $1.30 has successfully absorbed the selling pressure and that institutional and long-term holder flows are now driving the price higher.

Reaching the $10 target requires a sustained flow of capital that is likely driven by a major positive regulatory catalyst, such as a landmark ruling or increased institutional adoption. This would need to be accompanied by a significant increase in trading volume and open interest, indicating fresh, committed capital entering the market. The historical context cited by analyst CryptoBull suggests this is a long-term cycle target, but it remains highly speculative without the confluence of a bullish macro environment and a clear regulatory catalyst to fuel the required capital inflow.