XRP's $1.10 Crash: Flow Analysis of the 50% Drop and AI-Driven Bear Case

XRP's recent crash is severe, with the price falling to $1.10-its lowest level in over a year. This marks a drop of more than 50% in just a month, measured from its January 6 peak of $2.40. The breakdown has been swift, erasing multiple key support levels and signaling strong, sustained sell flow.

The technical picture confirms the bearish momentum. The price has broken decisively below the 5-day moving average at $1.3455 and the 50-day moving average at $1.5194. This breakdown below the $1.50 and $1.30 zones removes critical price floors that traders watch. The current 14-day RSI of 12.442 shows the asset is oversold, but the Strong Sell signal from moving averages indicates that selling pressure remains dominant.

This creates a clear disconnect with recent fundamental news. Last week, Ripple secured a major regulatory milestone, final EMI approval from Luxembourg, pushing its global license count past 75. Yet, XRP still plunged to $1.64 despite the positive development. This suggests that on-chain and market flow dynamics have overridden the impact of the regulatory license, with selling pressure overwhelming any potential positive sentiment.

Technical Flow: Accumulation Zone or New Downside Target?

XRP is now trading within a defined accumulation zone between $1.50 and $1.30. This area, identified by analyst Crypto Patel, represents a key technical level where some see a gradual build of long-term exposure. The price has corrected roughly 58% from its recent peak, placing it directly inside this zone. For now, the setup is one of consolidation, with the market testing whether this region can act as a floor or if it will be broken to the downside.

The technical indicators present a mixed but largely bearish flow picture. While the 14-day RSI of 12.442 confirms the asset is oversold, the overwhelming signal from moving averages is Strong Sell. The price remains decisively below both the 5-day moving average at $1.3455 and the 50-day average at $1.5194, indicating the downtrend remains intact. This disconnect-oversold conditions paired with strong sell signals-suggests that while the pace of selling may be slowing, the momentum is not yet turning bullish.

A decisive break below the $1.10 level would shift the flow dynamics significantly. That price, recently tested and broken, is a critical psychological and technical support. If lost, it could trigger a cascade toward the AI-predicted bear case. Analysts have noted that XRP could plunge to $0.85-$0.95 if broader capitulation unfolds. This would represent a further 20%+ decline from current levels and confirm a deeper, multi-month bear market. For now, the market is in a high-stakes test of the $1.30-$1.50 zone.

Catalysts and Key Levels to Watch

The immediate technical battle is for the $1.50 level. This is the first major resistance above the current price. A failure to hold above it would confirm the breakdown and likely target the established $1.50-$1.30 accumulation zone. Given the strong sell signal from moving averages, momentum favors further downside if this level breaks. The market is testing whether this zone can act as a floor or if it will be broken to the downside.

For a reversal to gain traction, watch for a sustained volume spike above $1.60. That price sits just above the recent peak and would signal a decisive break of the current downtrend. However, the current flow dynamics show buyers are cautious, and any upside attempts face heavy selling pressure. The AI-predicted bear case hinges on a loss of the $1.30 region, which would open the path to the $0.85-$0.95 range.

Long-term context is provided by the full 52-week range. XRP is now trading near the lower end of its recent consolidation, within the $0.3865 to $3.6556 band. This places the current price roughly 60% below its all-time high. While the immediate focus is on the $1.30-$1.50 zone, the broader range reminds traders that this correction is part of a larger cycle. The setup is one of high-stakes testing, where the next decisive move will either confirm a deeper bear market or signal the start of a new accumulation phase.