XRP Near $1.07 as $1 Support Burns - ETF Inflows Aren't Stopping the Fear

XRP near $1.07 is still testing the $1 floor

XRP at $1.07 is still pinned near the bottom of its recent range, not in a calm breakout setup. The token remains inside the $1 to $1.18 range it has occupied since late June, and buyers are defending the same floor they have only barely held all year.

The near-term setup is tight. Holding above $1.05 to $1.06 keeps the lower-range battle alive. Losing that area puts $1.00 back in play quickly. If buyers do regain control, $1.10 is still the first meaningful hurdle, so upside confirmation is not close.

Why bulls still have a case

The main bullish argument is that demand has not fully disappeared. U.S. spot XRP ETFs reportedly logged four consecutive inflow days even while the price stayed soft. Add Ripple's wider financial connections and exchange-traded fund access, and bulls can argue that market structure may be improving even if price still has not followed.

Why bears still control the near term

The chart and derivatives tape still look weak. Momentum is soft, leverage is unwinding, and open interest sits around $2.25 billion. Macro stress matters too: broader liquidity conditions can overshadow adoption headlines, which is why some analysts warn XRP could normalize toward $1 or lower.

Derivatives show pressure, but not a full flush

The key distinction is mechanical: XRP is still under leverage pressure, but the market does not yet look like a complete deleveraging move. Open interest near $2.25 billion shows positioning is still active, while leveraged exposure continues to unwind. That looks more like traders de-risking into weakness than a market where every leveraged holder has already been forced out.

Why the selloff could still extend

Unwinding can keep pressuring price even without fresh spot selling. As longs reduce exposure, falling open interest can break support before sentiment fully bottoms. The partial offset is that liquidations have been relatively balanced and funding remains close to neutral, which points more to a positioning reset than outright capitulation. That comes after a wider crypto crash that saw about $2.2 billion in futures liquidations.

Squeeze risk is still on the table

A rebound becomes more plausible if positioning keeps unwinding cleanly rather than forcing price lower. Perpetual futures open interest climbed to 2.35 billion XRP, showing derivative demand remains active. At the same time, XRP reserves on Binance edged lower, which can suggest less immediate sell-side liquidity if buyers step back in.

The bull case is that leverage is shedding and exchange supply is not building aggressively. The bear case is simpler: if open interest stays firm while price remains soft, new derivative positioning can still become fresh supply if macro pressure returns.

Watch one thing: does open interest keep falling while price stabilizes, or does it hold firm as sellers stay in control?

ETF inflows support the bull case, but price has not confirmed it

The strongest structural bullish signal is in flows, not price action. U.S. spot XRP ETFs have posted 30 consecutive days of net inflows and accumulated about $975 million by Dec. 12, even as bitcoin and ether funds saw outflows. That streak suggests steadier allocation demand rather than purely short-term speculation.

There is a second, softer flow signal as well. Binance reserves edged lower, and the XRP price has been stuck between $1 and $1.18 since late June. Taken together, these snapshots do not prove buyers are in control, but they do suggest the market is not showing an obvious buildup of immediate exchange supply right now.

The chart still has to confirm the story, and it has not. XRP is still near $1.07, trapped in the $1 to $1.18 range since late June, and remains roughly half its peak from mid-2025. Bulls can argue ETF demand may lead price later. For now, bears have the cleaner near-term case: if buyers cannot reclaim $1.10 soon, pressure has not fully cleared.