XRP at $1.05: Can One Policy Window Drive a 7x Move or Is This Still FUD Town?

XRP remains well below its peak as crypto policy becomes the near-term catalyst

XRP is still trading around $1.05-$1.06 and remains considerably below its 2022 peak. That gap leaves room for a major move if sentiment shifts, but it also shows how much regulatory uncertainty has weighed on the market. The next obvious catalyst is congressional timing: the Senate heads into August 7 recess, and if the CLARITY Act does not move before then, passage could slip beyond 2026. Polymarket currently places 2026 passage odds at 43%, so this is a meaningful catalyst, not a certainty.

Why the CLARITY Act matters more than the market mood

The key appeal for XRP bulls is not that the bill guarantees a price surge. It is that the legislation could make XRP's regulatory status more durable. The CLARITY Act would cement XRP's commodity status into permanent federal law, replacing the current reversible SEC/CFTC interpretation. For institutions that have been waiting for clearer rules, that distinction matters.

But the bill still faces steep obstacles. Republicans hold 53 Senate seats but need 7 to 9 Democratic votes to reach 60, and only about two such votes are seen as currently secured. If that support does not materialize before recess, the legislation may not finish this year. Missing the August 7 recess deadline could push crypto legislation to 2030, which would cool the near-term setup considerably.