XRP's $0.60-$0.90 Support Hypotenuse: Flow vs. Price Action

XRP is consolidating within a defined technical structure on the monthly chart. The primary pattern is an ascending triangle, where the upper resistance level is parallel to the time-axis, suggesting a natural upward bias as the consolidation range contracts. The lower trendline of this triangle forms the critical support zone, or "hypotenuse," which analysts point to between $0.60 and $0.90.

This monthly structure sits atop a more immediate, bearish framework. Since late last year, price action has been confined within a descending channel on the daily and weekly charts. Recent rallies have consistently failed to reclaim major resistance above $1.90, where key moving averages and prior support converge. This has kept the broader trend in a corrective phase, with the monthly triangle acting as the larger container for this ongoing consolidation.

The setup creates a clear tension. The ascending triangle's structure implies a potential bullish breakout, but the immediate descending channel shows persistent selling pressure. The market's next decisive move will hinge on whether price can break above the upper triangle resistance or if it will retest the lower support zone, testing the strength of that $0.60-$0.90 cushion.

Current Price Action and the $1.11 Low

XRP is trading around $1.40, down nearly 5% over the last 24 hours. This follows a sharp, single-day crash on February 5, 2026, when the token fell over 19% and touched a 15-month low of $1.11. That drop was the largest intraday decline since May 2021 and marked a significant technical event.

The crash was pivotal. It brought XRP back to the upper trendline of a multi-year symmetrical triangle it broke out of in November 2024. The retest of the $1.11 level confirmed the earlier breakout was holding, turning that low into a key support. The subsequent bounce from that point is now seen as a successful backtest, a positive signal in technical analysis.

The immediate context is one of consolidation after a violent move. XRP is now trading within the $1.30-$1.80 range, a historically underdeveloped zone that analysts believe the market is building a base in. This sets up the next test: whether this zone can act as a floor, allowing the ascending monthly triangle to eventually break higher, or if selling pressure will force a retest of the broader $0.60-$0.90 support hypotenuse.

On-Chain Flow: Accumulation as a Price Floor

The on-chain data reveals a clear pattern of accumulation that supports the $0.60-$0.90 support zone. The HODLer Net Position Change metric shows consistent accumulation with green bars signaling capital inflows into long-term wallets. This behavior builds a base by reducing available supply on exchanges, a critical factor for supporting price near the triangle's hypotenuse.

A key indicator of market psychology is the Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR). XRP's SOPR has climbed back above 1.0, indicating investors are no longer selling at a loss. This shift from realized losses to profitable transactions suggests capitulation is ending. As holders move from selling at a discount to selling at a profit, overall selling pressure diminishes, creating a more stable floor.

This combination of inflows into long-term holders and a halt to loss-selling provides a tangible flow-based foundation for the support zone. It means the capital that could flood the market during a drop is being absorbed by patient investors. For the $0.60-$0.90 hypotenuse to hold, this on-chain accumulation must continue to outpace any selling from short-term traders.