Xponential Fitness Plummets 46.8%: Regulatory Setbacks, Guidance Woes, and a Fractured Franchise Model Spark Investor Panic

Summary
• Xponential Fitness (XPOF) tumbles 46.8% intraday, trading at $4.2814 after opening at $6.425
• Earnings report reveals $17M FTC settlement, $0.91/share loss, and 2026 revenue guidance below $270M
• System-wide sales growth slows to 13% in 2025, with same-store sales declining 4.3% in North America

Xponential Fitness has imploded in early trading, shedding nearly half its value following a disastrous earnings report. The stock’s freefall is driven by a $17M FTC settlement, a wider-than-expected quarterly loss, and a 2026 revenue forecast that falls far short of analyst expectations. With same-store sales deteriorating and franchisee struggles mounting, investors are fleeing as the company’s once-bright franchise model shows cracks.

Regulatory Fallout and Guidance Shock Trigger Investor Exodus
Xponential Fitness’s catastrophic 46.8% drop stems from a perfect storm of regulatory penalties, weak guidance, and operational headwinds. The company announced a $17M FTC settlement to resolve alleged claims, a cash outflow that compounds its $45.6M quarterly net loss. Worse, 2026 revenue guidance of $200M–$270M—far below the $300M consensus—signals a 16% midpoint decline, driven by divestitures, merchandise outsourcing, and same-store sales stagnation. Management’s admission of a 30% inactive license pipeline and 3%–5% expected studio closures for 2026 further eroded confidence, painting a picture of a struggling franchise network unable to sustain growth.

Bearish Options Play and ETF Positioning in a Fractured Market
• 200-day average: 8.217 (above) • RSI: 45.00 (neutral) • MACD: 0.0315 (bearish crossover) • Bollinger Bands: 8.85 (upper), 7.78 (lower) • Support/Resistance: 8.19–8.21 (30D), 7.92–8.03 (200D)

XPOF’s technicals confirm a short-term bearish trend amid a long-term range-bound profile. Key levels to watch include the 200-day MA at $8.217 and the lower Bollinger Band at $7.78. With RSI at 45 and MACD signaling bearish momentum, the stock is primed for further downside. The options chain offers two high-leverage bearish plays:

• XPOF20260417C5: Call option with 78.68% implied volatility, 7.04% leverage ratio, and 0.1898 gamma. This contract benefits from moderate price swings and high sensitivity to movement. A 5% downside scenario (to $4.07) would yield a 200%+ payoff from the $5 strike.
• XPOF20261218P5: Put option with 88.50% implied volatility, 2.53% leverage ratio, and 0.1132 gamma. High liquidity (6,567 turnover) and strong theta (-0.001774) make this a viable short-term bearish bet. A 5% drop would trigger a 65%+ payoff.

Aggressive bears should prioritize XPOF20260417C5 for its high leverage and gamma, while XPOF20261218P5 offers a safer, time-decay-protected play. Both contracts align with the stock’s projected 4.28–7.78 range.

Backtest Xponential Fitness Stock Performance
The performance of XPOF after a -47% intraday plunge from 2022 to now has been relatively positive, with win rates and returns indicating a recovery trend. The 3-Day win rate is 50.97%, the 10-Day win rate is 52.27%, and the 30-Day win rate is 51.84%, suggesting that XPOF tends to experience short-term gains following significant declines. The maximum return during the backtest period was 4.02%, which occurred on day 59, indicating that while the stock has shown some resilience, its performance has not fully recovered the lost ground.

XPOF’s Freefall Likely to Continue—Watch for $4.06 Support and Sector Catalysts
Xponential Fitness’s collapse is far from over, with the 52-week low at $4.0617 now in sight. The FTC settlement, guidance shortfall, and franchisee struggles create a self-reinforcing bearish cycle. Investors should monitor the $4.06 level for a potential bounce or breakdown. Meanwhile, the sector leader Planet Fitness (PLNT), down 1.1%, offers a relative safe haven. If XPOF breaks below $4.06, the XPOF20260417C5 call option becomes a high-conviction short-side play. For now, the message is clear: XPOF is in freefall, and patience is key for any recovery signal.