XPO's 392nd Highest Volume Surge Fails to Lift Stock Amid Earnings Outperformance

Market Snapshot

On February 25, 2026, XPO (XPO) closed with a 2.95% decline, extending its downward trend despite a 71.71% surge in trading volume to $340 million—the 392nd highest on the day. The stock’s performance contrasts with its recent earnings history, which has shown volatility. For instance, in December 2025, XPO’s shares rose 13.41% following a 14.29% EPS beat and 2.55% revenue outperformance. However, the current drop suggests mixed investor sentiment, potentially reflecting caution ahead of its April 2026 earnings report, which lacks published EPS or revenue guidance.

Key Drivers

XPO’s recent earnings performance has been marked by consistent outperformance relative to forecasts. For Q3 2025 (ended September 2025), the company reported adjusted EPS of $1.07, exceeding the $1.02 forecast by 4.9%, and revenue of $2.11 billion, up 3% year-over-year. This translated to a 15.33% pre-market stock surge at the time. The LTL (Less-Than-Truckload) segment, a core business, achieved record adjusted EBITDA of $308 million, contributing to total company EBITDA of $342 million—a 3% YoY increase. These results highlight the company’s ability to navigate a soft freight market through operational efficiencies, including reduced damage frequency and improved on-time performance.

CEO Mario Harik’s comments further underscored optimism, with statements like “early innings of delivering improvements” and a forecast for “above-market yield growth.” The company plans to target improved operating ratios by 2026 and expand its small/medium business mix to 30%, signaling a strategic pivot toward less volatile customer segments. These initiatives may bolster long-term resilience, particularly in a sector sensitive to macroeconomic fluctuations.

However, recent volatility indicates investor skepticism. For example, in December 2024, XPO’s shares rose 8.69% after a 35.75% EPS beat, yet the stock fell 10.20% in June 2025 despite a 5% EPS outperformance. This inconsistency suggests that while operational metrics have improved, broader market dynamics—such as freight demand or input costs—remain unpredictable. The absence of a revenue forecast for the March 2026 quarter (due April 30) may exacerbate uncertainty, as investors lack clear benchmarks to assess future performance.

The interplay between strong earnings surprises and price declines also reflects the challenge of balancing short-term results with long-term expectations. For instance, in Q3 2025, the 15.33% price jump followed the earnings report, but the current 2.95% drop implies that the market may be factoring in potential headwinds. These could include macroeconomic risks, such as a slowdown in logistics demand, or structural challenges in scaling the small/medium business segment. Without concrete data on upcoming forecasts, investors are likely hedging their positions, leading to the observed price correction.

In summary, XPO’s stock performance is driven by a mix of strong earnings execution and cautious outlooks. While operational efficiencies and strategic shifts have delivered recent gains, the lack of clarity on future guidance and macroeconomic risks continue to weigh on investor confidence. The coming months will be critical in determining whether the company can sustain its momentum or if external pressures will temper its progress.