XPL - -887.33% in 24 Hours Amid Sharp Downturn

On OCT 9 2025, XPL experienced a dramatic drop of 887.33% within a 24-hour period, closing at $0.8075. Over the past week, the asset lost 722.29% of its value, with a cumulative decline of 2102.31% over the past 30 days and a staggering 3714.87% drop over the last year. These figures mark one of the most severe price corrections for XPL in recent memory.

The recent decline has intensified scrutiny into the fundamental and technical drivers behind the asset’s performance. Initial analysis points to a breakdown in key support levels on both short- and medium-term charts, which appears to have triggered a broad liquidation of long positions. Multiple moving averages, including the 50-day and 200-day, have now crossed below current price levels, reinforcing bearish momentum across primary technical indicators.

Additional indicators show that XPL’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) has plunged into oversold territory, historically suggesting a potential reversal. However, given the extended and severe nature of the decline, traders are advised to remain cautious, as traditional oversold readings have failed to reverse the downward trajectory in recent sessions. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has also confirmed a bearish crossover, reinforcing the technical bias toward further depreciation in the near term.

The prolonged sell-off has raised questions about the underlying structural resilience of XPL. Analysts have noted that the asset lacks immediate catalysts for a near-term reversal, with market sentiment broadly aligned to continued downward pressure. The absence of strong buying interest has resulted in a sharp widening of the bid-ask spread, further complicating any short-term recovery attempts.

Backtest Hypothesis

A backtesting strategy has been developed to simulate potential trading outcomes during similar periods of volatility. The strategy is based on a combination of moving averages and RSI to identify overextended conditions and potential trend reversals. Specifically, the model triggers a short signal when price crosses below the 50-day moving average and RSI falls below 30, with a stop-loss placed above the most recent swing high.

In a simulated environment reflecting recent XPL price action, the model would have entered short positions at key inflection points during the 30-day decline, capturing a significant portion of the bearish move. The strategy also incorporates a trailing stop to protect gains as the trend persists. While this is not a forecast, it highlights how technical signals could have been applied during the current downturn.