XPL Up 641.04% in 24 Hours Amid Sharp Volatility Amid Technical Reversal

On OCT 4 2025, XPL surged by 641.04% within 24 hours to reach $0.9081, marking a sharp reversal in a highly volatile market environment. This follows a 2286.64% drop over the past seven days and a 904.08% decline over the last month, with the one-year performance registering a staggering 2761.29% drop. Despite the recent volatility, the sharp 24-hour rise has triggered renewed interest among investors and analysts.

The immediate rebound has been attributed to a combination of technical triggers and market sentiment shifts. Traders have noted that XPL recently hit a key oversold level on the RSI indicator, which had dipped below 20—a traditional signal of potential market exhaustion. This, coupled with the price rebound off a long-term support zone, has been interpreted by some as a short-term reversal pattern. However, the broader trend remains bearish, with the 200-day moving average positioned well above current levels.

Technical indicators used in the most recent analysis include the Relative Strength Index (RSI), Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD), and volume profile. The RSI's bounce from oversold levels was seen as a potential catalyst for the 24-hour rally. The MACD histogram showed a narrowing divergence, which some analysts interpret as a sign of a waning downtrend. Additionally, the volume profile for the day was significantly higher than the 30-day average, suggesting increased participation in the buying wave.

Backtest Hypothesis

To test the viability of a strategy based on these indicators, a hypothetical backtesting framework has been proposed. The strategy would trigger a long position when the RSI dips below 20 and the MACD line crosses above the signal line, with a stop-loss set at the 200-day moving average. A take-profit target would be set at the nearest resistance level above the entry point. This approach aims to capture short-term bounce scenarios while limiting exposure to deeper bearish moves.

The strategy would be applied to historical XPL data to assess performance across various timeframes, particularly during periods of high volatility. Metrics such as win rate, average return per trade, and maximum drawdown would be measured to evaluate robustness. Given the recent price behavior, the backtest would aim to determine whether the indicators can consistently identify entry points with a favorable risk-reward ratio.