XPL -183.2% YTD Amid Sharp Correction in Technicals

On OCT 11 2025, XPL dropped by 607.92% within 24 hours to reach $0.4489, XPL dropped by 5734.9% within 7 days, dropped by 5637.97% within 1 month, and dropped by 6528.62% within 1 year.

The asset has experienced an unprecedented and severe decline over the past year, with a cumulative drop of over 6500%. This sharp sell-off has pushed XPL into a deep bear market, with key support levels being tested on a daily basis. The recent 24-hour drop of 607.92% is particularly alarming and indicates a high level of panic selling or forced liquidation. Analysts project that such extreme volatility could be a result of cascading short positions or algorithmic-driven trading activity amplifying downward momentum.

From a technical perspective, XPL has been trading below both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, reflecting long-term bearish sentiment. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently in extreme oversold territory, indicating potential for a short-term bounce. However, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) shows a deepening bearish crossover, reinforcing the likelihood of further downside in the near term. The chart pattern suggests a continuation of the downward trend unless a strong reversal signal emerges.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy for XPL involves using the oversold RSI as a buy trigger, with a stop-loss placed below the 200-day moving average. The strategy would exit long positions upon the RSI crossing above 50 or when the MACD line crosses above the signal line. The hypothesis is that the asset could experience a short-term rebound amid extreme oversold conditions. However, the effectiveness of such a strategy would depend on whether the underlying fundamentals and broader market sentiment support a turnaround. Given the historical context of XPL’s performance, the strategy would need to account for high volatility and the risk of continued deterioration.