Xpeng (XPEV) Surges 5.84% as 10.95% Rally Reclaims $20 Support

Xpeng (XPEV) has surged 5.84% in the latest session, extending a three-day rally with a 10.95% cumulative gain. This sharp rebound from a July 18.31 support level suggests short-term buyers are re-accumulating shares, particularly as the stock has reclaimed key psychological thresholds above $20. The recent price action, characterized by higher highs and higher lows, indicates a potential shift in sentiment from bearish consolidation to bullish momentum, warranting a deeper dive into technical indicators to validate or challenge this narrative.

Candlestick Theory

The recent price action forms a bullish continuation pattern, with the stock closing above the 21.00 level after a series of higher lows. A critical support at $18.94 (August 28 low) appears reinforced by the three-day rally, while resistance now resides at $21.62 (August 11 high). A potential bearish divergence is evident in the August 6-8 price action, where lower highs and higher lows suggested waning momentum before the recent reversal. The 21.38 close on August 11 creates a new near-term resistance zone that could trigger profit-taking if breached, but the 5.84% daily gain implies strong buyer participation at this level.

Moving Average Theory

The 50-day moving average currently sits at $19.95, while the 200-day average is at $18.70, indicating a bullish "golden cross" scenario. The stock has remained above both averages for the past month, reinforcing the medium-term uptrend. The 100-day MA at $19.60 further validates this structure, with the price now trading 7.4% above the 200-day line. A breakdown below $19.27 (August 6 low) would threaten the 50-day MA, potentially invalidating the bullish thesis. Conversely, a sustained move above $21.62 could trigger a retest of the May 22.25 high, where the 200-day MA historically acted as resistance.

MACD & KDJ Indicators

The MACD histogram has turned positive since mid-August, with the MACD line crossing above the signal line on August 4. This confirms strengthening momentum, though the recent rapid 10.95% rally may push the indicator into overbought territory by week's end. The stochastic oscillator (KDJ) shows a bullish crossover on August 11, with K at 82 and D at 78, suggesting exhaustion of the rally but not yet overbought conditions. Divergence between the MACD and KDJ may emerge if the stock fails to make a new high while the oscillators peak, signaling potential exhaustion.

Bollinger Bands

The 20-period Bollinger Bands have expanded significantly, with the upper band at $21.62 and the lower band at $19.20. The current price of $21.38 sits near the upper band, indicating overbought conditions. The 10-day volatility (ATR) of $1.25 suggests a potential pullback to the middle band ($20.41) before resuming the uptrend. A break below the lower band would invalidate the bullish case, while a sustained close above the upper band could trigger a parabolic move.

Volume-Price Relationship

Trading volume has spiked on the recent rally, with the August 11 session seeing 11.45 million shares traded—well above the 30-day average of 7.8 million. This surge in liquidity validates the bullish breakout from the $19.27-$21.03 trading range. However, volume declined on the August 4-5 rally to $19.29, suggesting weaker conviction. The current volume profile indicates strong short-term demand but may not yet confirm a fundamental shift in investor sentiment.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The 14-period RSI has risen to 68, approaching overbought territory. A close above 70 would trigger caution, as this has historically preceded pullbacks in Xpeng’s stock. The RSI divergence from price action is notable: while the stock made a new high on August 11, the RSI failed to surpass its previous peak at 65 (July 23), hinting at potential exhaustion. This suggests the rally may face resistance before confirming a new bullish trend.

Fibonacci Retracement

Key Fibonacci levels derived from the May 22.25 high and April 16.42 low include 23.8% at $20.20, 38.2% at $19.65, and 50% at $19.34. The current price of $21.38 sits above the 23.8% retracement level, indicating strong momentum. A breakdown below $20.20 would target the 38.2% and 50% levels, which have historically acted as strong support areas during consolidation phases.

Backtest Hypothesis

The RSI-based strategy described in the backtest aligns closely with Xpeng’s recent price dynamics. From July to August 2025, the stock’s RSI frequently oscillated between overbought and neutral zones, with three instances of crossing above 70 coinciding with record deliveries and strong volume. For example, the July 22 close at 18.87 (RSI 62) and subsequent rally to 21.38 would have triggered the strategy’s buy signal, while the August 4 close at 18.86 (RSI 58) would have acted as a re-entry point. The strategy’s 63% win rate appears robust in this context, as the August 11 breakout on strong volume validated the RSI-driven entry. However, the current RSI near 68 suggests caution, as the strategy’s sell rule at 70 may soon trigger a profit-taking phase. This approach effectively captures Xpeng’s momentum-driven rallies while mitigating risk during consolidation, though its performance may weaken if the stock transitions to a range-bound pattern.