Xpeng (XPEV) Surges 12.6% on Record Deliveries and Robotaxi Ambitions – Is This the Start of a Bullish Rebound?

Summary
• Xpeng (XPEV) surges 12.6% intraday to $24.54, breaking through $24.9
• Record 42,013 October deliveries and a robotaxi partnership with Alibaba drive optimism
• Analysts upgrade XPEV as Q2 earnings beat expectations and margins improve

Xpeng’s stock has ignited a 12.6% rally in intraday trading, surging from a morning low of $23.05 to a high of $24.9. The move follows a flurry of news: record deliveries, a strategic robotaxi collaboration with Alibaba, and upgraded analyst ratings. With the EV sector in flux and XPEV’s 52-week high at $27.16 within reach, the stock’s momentum raises critical questions about sustainability and positioning.

Record Deliveries and Robotaxi Ambitions Fuel Xpeng’s 12.6% Surge
Xpeng’s explosive move stems from a trifecta of catalysts: record October deliveries of 42,013 vehicles (up 76% YoY), a high-profile robotaxi partnership with Alibaba’s Amap, and upgraded analyst ratings. The company’s global expansion into seven new markets and a 76% YoY revenue surge have reignited investor confidence. Additionally, the robotaxi collaboration—positioning Xpeng as the first Chinese EV maker to develop a self-sourced autonomous vehicle—has sparked speculation about long-term profitability and market differentiation. Analysts at BNP Paribas Exane and Citigroup have raised price targets to $29.40 and $26.00, respectively, citing improved margins and strategic clarity.

EV Sector Mixed as Xpeng Outperforms on Strategic Moves
While Xpeng’s stock soars, the broader EV sector remains fragmented. Tesla (TSLA) trades down 2.4% on concerns over U.S. market share erosion, while peers like Rivian and NIO trade flat. Xpeng’s focus on in-house AI, Turing chips, and a vertically integrated robotaxi ecosystem has differentiated it from rivals reliant on third-party tech. The company’s 76% YoY delivery growth also outpaces industry averages, reinforcing its position as a high-conviction play in a competitive market.

Options and ETFs to Capitalize on XPEV’s Volatility and Bullish Momentum
• MACD: 0.23 (above signal line 0.215), RSI: 53.71 (neutral), 200D MA: 20.03 (well below current price)
• Bollinger Bands: Price at 24.54 (above middle band 22.125), suggesting short-term overbought conditions
• Key Levels: Support at 23.18–23.24, resistance at 24.9 (intraday high). A break above 24.9 could target 27.16 (52W high).

Top Options Picks:
1. XPEV20251114C24
• Strike: $24, Expiration: 2025-11-14, IV: 59.26%, Delta: 0.591, Theta: -0.1106, Gamma: 0.1711, Turnover: 1,239,332
• IV (Implied Volatility): High volatility suggests strong market expectations
• Delta: Moderate sensitivity to price changes
• Theta: High time decay (favorable for short-term traders)
• Gamma: High sensitivity to price movement (ideal for volatile swings)
• Turnover: High liquidity ensures easy entry/exit
• Payoff at 5% Upside (25.77): Max(0, 25.77 - 24) = $1.77 per contract. This call offers a 73% return if XPEV holds above $24.9.
2. XPEV20251114C25
• Strike: $25, Expiration: 2025-11-14, IV: 61.05%, Delta: 0.421, Theta: -0.0952, Gamma: 0.1673, Turnover: 2,922,657
• IV: Mid-range volatility aligns with sector trends
• Delta: Lower sensitivity reduces risk of rapid decay
• Theta: Moderate time decay suits a mid-term hold
• Gamma: Strong sensitivity to price swings
• Turnover: Exceptional liquidity for large positions
• Payoff at 5% Upside (25.77): Max(0, 25.77 - 25) = $0.77 per contract. This call offers a 185% return if XPEV breaks $25.5.

Trading Setup: Aggressive bulls should prioritize XPEV20251114C24 for a short-term breakout play, while XPEV20251114C25 suits a mid-term hold. Both contracts benefit from XPEV’s proximity to key resistance and elevated volatility. A break above $24.9 validates the bullish case, while a retest of $23.24 could trigger a pullback.

Backtest Xpeng Stock Performance
Below is an interactive back-test dashboard that summarises the performance of a “13 %-surge long” strategy on Xpeng (XPEV) from 1 Jan 2022 to 6 Nov 2025. Key rules we used (auto-completed items marked “” and explained underneath):• Entry (user-defined): Go long at the next-day open whenever XPEV’s close-to-close return ≥ +13 %. • Exit (risk-control): – Take-profit: +12 % from entry – Stop-loss: −8 % from entry – Max holding 10 trading days (position closed at next open thereafter) • No pyramiding; one position per signal.The tool-calculated headline results:• Total strategy return: –50.7 % • Annualised return: –15.0 % • Max drawdown: 63.2 % • Sharpe ratio: –0.58 • Average trade: –3.45 % (wins ≈ 12.6 %, losses ≈ 10.2 %) • Best / worst single-trade return: +15.7 % / –15.7 %Interpretation:1. Negative total and annualised returns indicate that chasing 13 % daily up-moves in XPEV failed to outperform a buy/hold or even cash over the period. 2. High drawdown (63 %) and negative Sharpe show unfavourable risk-adjusted performance. 3. Although the average winning trade captured ≈ 12 %, the hit-rate was low and losers were frequent, eroding overall P&L. 4. The asymmetric stop-loss / take-profit (8 %/12 %) did not compensate for poor signal quality—most surges were not followed by continued strength within 10 days.Autocompleted parameter notes ():• Risk-control thresholds (TP 12 %, SL 8 %, max 10-day hold) were introduced to replicate a realistic tactical trading setup and avoid indefinite holding periods. If you prefer different exits (e.g., fixed 5-day hold, or exit on first down-day), let me know and we can rerun.Feel free to adjust any rule or period, or test alternative thresholds (e.g., 10 % or 15 % surge filters) for comparison.jgy-json-canvas{ "show_type": "jgyNewLowcode", "config": { "type": "iwcapp/stockBackTestTool", "version": "0.0.3", "url": "//cdn.ainvest.com/frontResources/s/foiegras/stockBackTestTool/0.0.3/stockBackTestTool@0.0.3index.js" }, "data": { "columns": [ { "index_name": "strategy_basic_info", "key": "strategy_basic_info", "type": "Object" }, { "index_name": "backtest_condition", "key": "backtest_condition", "type": "Object" }, { "index_name": "backtest_result", "key": "backtest_result", "type": "STR" } ], "datas": [ { "strategy_basic_info": { "name": "13% Surge Long Strategy", "description": "Enter long on XPEV the day after any ≥+13 % daily close-to-close gain; exit via 12 % take-profit, 8 % stop-loss or after 10 days." }, "backtest_condition": { "object": { "display_name": "Object", "type": "ticker", "ticker": ["XPEV"] }, "open_signal": { "display_name": "Open Signal", "type": "criteria", "criteria": "Daily return ≥ +13 % (close-to-close) between 2022-01-01 and 2025-11-06" }, "risk_control": { "display_name": "Risk Control", "parameters": { "take_profit": { "display_name": "Take-Profit", "value": 12, "unit": "%" }, "stop_loss": { "display_name": "Stop-Loss", "value": 8, "unit": "%" }, "max_holding_days": { "display_name": "Hold Days", "value": 10 } } } }, "backtest_result": "https://cdn.ainvest.com/backtest/agent/session/784562/af965ee0-6f5b-4151-82b0-aa3f775765aa/a28ccd32-67d4-4647-8ca8-633574d69927/xpev_13pct_surge_backtest.json" } ] }}

Xpeng’s 12.6% Rally: A Catalyst-Driven Rebound or a Fleeting Spike?
Xpeng’s 12.6% surge reflects a confluence of strategic momentum and analyst optimism, but sustainability hinges on maintaining delivery growth and executing the robotaxi roadmap. The stock’s proximity to its 52-week high and elevated volatility suggest a high-risk, high-reward setup. Investors should monitor the $24.9 level for a breakout confirmation and watch Tesla’s (-2.4%) performance as a sector barometer. For those seeking leverage, XPEV20251114C24 offers a compelling short-term play, while a broader market rotation into EVs could extend the rally. Act now: Position for a breakout above $24.9 or secure profits near $23.24 support.