Xpeng Surges 4.82%—Can AI-Powered Ambitions Fuel a New Bull Run?

Summary
• Xpeng (XPEV) surges 4.82% to $20.86, outpacing the broader EV sector
• Record Q2 revenue of $2.55B and 142.8% delivery growth guide Q3
• AI-driven Turing chip and VW tech partnership spark investor optimism

Xpeng’s stock has surged to a 2025 high of $21.08 amid a record quarterly revenue report and bullish delivery forecasts. The Chinese EV maker’s shares have clawed back from an intraday low of $19.95, driven by a 142.8% year-on-year delivery growth projection and strategic AI advancements. With Tesla’s sector lead faltering (-0.7% intraday), Xpeng’s rally highlights a shift in investor sentiment toward innovation-driven EVs.

AI Chip and Revenue Surge Drive Xpeng's Rally
Xpeng’s 4.82% intraday gain is fueled by a dual catalyst: record Q2 revenue of $2.55 billion and a 142.8% year-on-year delivery growth forecast for Q3. The company’s in-house Turing chip, designed for AI-driven autonomous driving, has positioned it as a technological leader in China’s competitive EV market. Analysts highlight the chip’s potential to optimize performance over generic solutions, while a 17.3% gross margin in Q2—up from 14% in 2024—signals improving profitability. Additionally, a tech partnership with Volkswagen to integrate Xpeng’s architecture into gasoline and hybrid platforms has expanded its market reach, attracting speculative and institutional buying.

EV Sector Splits as Xpeng Outpaces Tesla's Downturn
While Xpeng’s shares surged, the broader EV sector remains fragmented. Tesla (TSLA), the sector’s bellwether, fell 0.7% intraday despite its market dominance, reflecting investor skepticism toward its recent product roadmap. In contrast, Xpeng’s focus on AI integration and cost-optimized manufacturing has differentiated it in a price-war-ravaged China market. The company’s 14.3% vehicle margin in Q2—up from 6.4% in 2024—underscores its ability to navigate competitive pricing pressures, outperforming peers like BYD and Li Auto, which face margin compression.

Options and ETFs to Capitalize on Xpeng’s AI-Driven Momentum
• MACD: 0.383 (above signal line 0.313), RSI: 61.06 (neutral), 200D MA: $17.42 (below price)
• Bollinger Bands: Price at $20.86 (near upper band $20.93), 30D Support: $18.20–$18.28

Xpeng’s technicals suggest a continuation of its bullish trend. The stock is trading above its 200-day average and within a strong RSI range, indicating momentum. Key resistance lies at $21.08 (intraday high), with support at $19.95 (intraday low). A breakout above $21.08 could target $22.50, aligning with its 52-week high of $27.16. For leveraged exposure, consider XPEV20250829C21 and XPEV20250829C21.5.

• XPEV20250829C21 (Call, $21 strike, 8/29 expiry):
- IV: 53.99% (moderate), Delta: 0.517 (moderate sensitivity), Theta: -0.075 (high time decay), Gamma: 0.203 (high sensitivity to price swings), Turnover: 16,952 (liquid)
- Payoff at 5% upside ($21.90): $0.90/share. This contract balances leverage and liquidity, ideal for a moderate bullish stance.
• XPEV20250829C21.5 (Call, $21.50 strike, 8/29 expiry):
- IV: 58.54% (high), Delta: 0.427 (moderate sensitivity), Theta: -0.071 (high time decay), Gamma: 0.184 (strong price sensitivity), Turnover: 19,115 (liquid)
- Payoff at 5% upside ($21.90): $0.40/share. This option offers higher leverage for aggressive bulls, with a favorable gamma-to-theta ratio for short-term volatility.

Aggressive bulls should buy XPEV20250829C21 if $20.50 holds.

Backtest Xpeng Stock Performance
The backtest of XPEV's performance after an intraday surge of 5% shows favorable short-to-medium-term gains, highlighting the stock's potential for positive movement following a strong initial trigger. The 3-Day win rate is 49.14%, the 10-Day win rate is 49.32%, and the 30-Day win rate is 51.71%, indicating that XPEV tends to experience gains in the immediate aftermath of a 5% surge. The maximum return observed was 9.07% over 30 days, suggesting that there is potential for significant price appreciation following a catalyst event.

Xpeng’s AI Bet Paying Off—Position for a Breakout
Xpeng’s rally is underpinned by a confluence of AI innovation, revenue growth, and strategic partnerships. With a 17.3% gross margin and a 142.8% delivery growth forecast, the stock’s fundamentals align with its technical strength. However, Tesla’s 0.7% decline highlights sector volatility. Investors should monitor the $20.50 support level and the $21.08 resistance. For those seeking leverage, the XPEV20250829C21 and XPEV20250829C21.5 options offer tailored exposure. Act now: Buy XPEV20250829C21 if $20.50 holds.