Why XPeng's Shares Soared 7%: Deliveries, Tech, and Tesla's Woes Collide

On Friday, April 11, XPeng (XPEV) shares surged 7.18%, marking one of its most significant single-day gains in years. The rally wasn’t a fluke—it was the culmination of a perfect storm of operational momentum, strategic moves, and a shifting competitive landscape. Let’s unpack the forces driving this surge, starting with the most obvious catalyst.

1. Delivery Growth on Steroids

XPeng’s Q1 2025 results were nothing short of staggering: 94,008 vehicles delivered, a 331% year-over-year jump, with March alone hitting 33,205 units—a 268% YoY surge. This relentless growth, now spanning five consecutive months above 30,000 units, has positioned XPeng as a leader in China’s EV arms race.

The key driver? The G6 and G9 models, which are packed with the Turing AI system, offering features like advanced ADAS and in-car personalization. Investors are betting that XPeng’s focus on affordability and tech differentiation will keep the pedal to the metal.

2. Analysts Flip the Script

For years, XPeng faced skepticism about its ability to scale. But Friday’s rally was turbocharged by two major analyst upgrades:

• Nomura went from “Neutral” to “Buy”, hiking its price target to $30 (a 114% increase).
• Bank of America raised its target to $27, citing XPeng’s 14.4% gross margin (up from 6.2% a year ago) and its 95% projected revenue growth in 2025.

Analysts are now pricing in XPeng’s $80 billion 2025 revenue target, fueled by 30 new stores opening in China this year and a self-operated charging network that’s critical for customer loyalty.

3. The Tesla Effect: XPeng’s Pricing Play

While XPeng’s growth is impressive, the timing of its Indonesia expansion and Australia pricing strategy couldn’t be better. Tesla’s China sales fell 11% YoY in March 2025, and XPeng is capitalizing by undercutting Tesla’s Model Y in Australia with the G7, set to launch there in 2026.

This isn’t just a regional play—XPeng aims to double its international footprint to 60 countries by 2025, leveraging cost advantages and a tech edge.

4. Flying Cars and AI: The Moonshot Factor

Investors also cheered XPeng’s eVTOL X2 flying car, slated for 2026. While it’s a long-term bet, it signals XPeng’s ambition to dominate both ground and air mobility. Pair that with its Turing AI system—already earning 5-star Euro NCAP ratings in Finland and Poland—and the stock becomes a tech-and-traditional hybrid play.

5. Technicals and Trade War Resilience

The rally wasn’t all fundamentals. A “cup and handle pattern” in the stock’s chart hinted at a potential 40% upside if it breaks through $23.55 resistance. Meanwhile, XPeng’s focus on China’s stimulus programs—versus U.S.-exposed rivals—shielded it from trade war jitters.

The Bottom Line: XPeng’s Recipe for Success

XPeng’s surge isn’t just about today—it’s about execution against a clear roadmap:
- Deliveries: 30k/month cadence is now table stakes; Q1’s 94k beat estimates by 14%.
- Margins: Gross margin hit 14.4%, narrowing the gap with Tesla’s 17%.
- Global Ambition: Indonesia and Australia are just the start of a 60-country expansion.

With a $27 price target from BofA (vs. current $17.30) and Nomura’s $30 target, the Street is pricing in XPeng’s ability to sustain its growth streak. The risk? Supply chain hiccups or a Tesla comeback. But for now, XPeng’s blend of tech, scale, and strategic foresight has investors betting big.

In a sector where execution separates winners from vaporware, XPeng’s Q1 results and analyst upgrades make it a rare EV stock with both momentum and a moat. The question now: Can it keep the pedal down? The market is clearly betting yes.