XPeng's Q3 2025: Contradictions Emerge on Turing Chip Timelines, International Expansion, Robotaxi, Humanoid Robots, and New Business Revenue

Date of Call: November 17, 2025

Financials Results

• Revenue: RMB 20.38 billion, up 101.8% YOY and up 11.5% sequentially
• Gross Margin: 20.1% for Q3 2025, compared with 15.3% in Q3 2024 and 17.3% in Q2 2025
• Operating Margin: Loss from operations of RMB 0.75 billion in Q3 2025, improved from a loss of RMB 1.85 billion YoY and RMB 0.93 billion sequentially

Guidance:

• Q4 deliveries expected between 125,000 and 132,000 units (up 36.6%–44.3% YoY)
• Q4 revenue expected RMB 21.5 billion to RMB 23.0 billion (up 33.5%–42.8% YoY)
• Target to achieve company breakeven in Q4 2025
• VLA 2.0 rollouts begin late Dec with mass deployment across Ultra lineup in early 2026
• Turing SoC revenue to begin in Q4 (small) and ramp with SOP of jointly developed vehicles early 2026
• Robotaxi pilots and humanoid robot mass-production programs progressing toward 2026 deployment

Business Commentary:

* Record Sales and Revenue Growth: - XPeng's vehicle deliveries for Q3 2025 totaled 116,007 units, a 149% increase year-over-year. - The company reported revenue of RMB 20.38 billion for the third quarter of 2025, an 101.8% year-over-year increase and 11.5% quarter-over-quarter increase. - The growth was driven by higher deliveries from newly launched vehicle models and increased services and other revenues.

• Gross Margin and Cost Efficiency:
• XPeng's gross margin exceeded 20% for the first time in Q3 2025.
• The year-over-year and quarter-over-quarter increases were primarily due to ongoing cost reduction and targeted promotions to clear outgoing inventory.

• The improved margins reflect the company's focus on operational improvements and cost efficiency.

• Innovation in AI and Product Expansion:

• XPeng is expanding its product portfolio with seven one vehicle, dual energy models set to launch in Q1 2026.
  
• The company continues to invest in R&D, particularly in physical AI models and computing infrastructure.

• This strategy aims to increase the total addressable market and provide significant sales growth opportunities.

• Globalization and Overseas Expansion:

• XPeng's overseas deliveries exceeded 5,000 units per month in September 2025, a 79% year-over-year increase.
• The company expanded its sales and service network to 52 countries and regions worldwide with 56 new overseas stores.
• This growth is supported by localized production facilities in Austria and Indonesia, enhancing local market penetration.
  

  Sentiment Analysis:

  Overall Tone: Positive

  • Management highlighted "record results" in deliveries and revenue (116,007 units, +149% YOY), gross margin "exceeded 20% for the first time", and reduced net loss; CFO reported revenues of RMB 20.38bn (+101.8% YOY) and cash reserves of RMB 48.33bn; CEO stated the goal to "achieve breakeven for the company in the fourth quarter."

Q&A:

• Question from Tim Hsiao (Morgan Stanley): Could management elaborate on what aspects XPeng's long-term competitive advantage in physical AI will be and how the company will continuously enhance strength in these areas?
  Response: XPeng's advantage is full‑stack, cross‑domain physical AI integration—software‑centric vehicle/robot development (software >50% of product), in‑house SoCs and shared physical world models enabling rapid iteration across cars and robots.

• Question from Tim Hsiao (Morgan Stanley): When will revenue from the collaboration with Volkswagen start to kick in and how should we think about its trend in the December quarter and full year 2026?
  Response: Technical collaboration revenue rose in Q3 and is expected to be comparable in Q4; Turing SoC revenue begins in Q4 (small) and will ramp with the jointly developed vehicles' SOP early 2026; 2026 tech‑collab revenue expected broadly comparable to 2025 if milestones delivered.

• Question from Y.C. Lai (JPMorgan): Can you discuss XPeng's humanoid robot technology roadmap, how you compare with peers, and where XPeng's medium/long‑term competitive advantages lie?
  Response: XPeng cites full‑stack R&D, higher‑generation robot designs, and strong synergies with vehicle data/SoCs as advantages, giving it a first‑mover commercialization edge versus peers focused on earlier‑gen hardware.

• Question from Y.C. Lai (JPMorgan): What are the key milestones and expected capacity/scale toward commercialization through end‑2026 and longer term (e.g., 2030 target of 1M units)?
  Response: Entering 1.0 mass‑production stage next month, aiming for orderly ramp and field deployments (stores, campuses) in 2026, SDK opening for partners; household adoption seen as multi‑year (~5 years) and broader scale beyond 2026.

• Question from Ming‑Hsun Lee (BofA Securities): Why launch Robotaxi service in 2026, what is the technology inflection point, cost trajectory and XPeng's advantages vs other Robotaxi companies?
  Response: 2026 aligns with inflection points from full‑stack self‑development and cross‑domain models (VLA/VLM) enabling LiDAR/HD‑map‑independent generalization and lower cost, supporting scalable commercial Robotaxi deployments.

• Question from Ming‑Hsun Lee (BofA Securities): How do you plan to commercialize Robotaxi (fleet size, city/overseas rollouts) and elaborate on the Amap cooperation and other partnership plans?
  Response: Plan to launch three Robotaxi models at varied price points in 2026, prioritize regulatory approval and smooth operations, scale via ecosystem partners (Amap first) and open interfaces/SDK to integrate ride‑hailing and local partners.

• Question from Tina Hou (Goldman Sachs): Over the next 1–3 years, do you have revenue estimates or breakdown for new businesses (Robotaxi, humanoid robot, eVTOL)?
  Response: No numerical guidance provided; expect volume/operational scaling in next 12 months with the flying car (Land Aircraft Carrier) potentially delivering in the thousands by end‑2026; Robotaxi/humanoid revenue contribution expected limited in 2026.

• Question from Tina Hou (Goldman Sachs): Can you provide details on new passenger models (segments, prices domestic and overseas) and any 2026 volume target?
  Response: X9 Super EREV launching Nov 20; three super‑electric models registered for early 2026 and four new one‑chassis dual‑powertrain vehicles planned, totaling seven models to drive 2026 growth; at least three will go to international markets to fuel volume expansion.

• Question from Pingyue Wu (Citic): What is the growth potential of new EREV models in 2026 and will humanoid robots be affordable for families (e.g., ~RMB 200k)?
  Response: Expect strong demand for X9 EREV with several‑fold QoQ growth when deliveries begin; robot BOMs are high today but software‑centric economics and SKU rationalization should bring retail robot pricing closer to car levels over time (no concrete price given).

• Question from Xiaoyi Lei (Jefferies): Update on overseas localized production for next year and how smart driving will be leveraged to drive international sales growth?
  Response: Localized production initiated in H2 2025 (Magna Austria, Indonesia), expecting tens of thousands in Europe and high‑thousands in Indonesia next year; will increase localization and leverage smart‑driving features to accelerate international volume and profitability.

Contradiction Point 1

Turing Chip Integration and Smart Driving Capabilities

It reflects differing timelines and expectations for the integration of the Turing chip and the impact on smart driving capabilities, which are crucial for XPeng's competitive positioning.

When will XPeng's Ultra trim Turing chip offer a better software experience than competitors? - Tim Hsiao (Morgan Stanley)

2025Q3: Initial VLA launch with Ultra trim will be in 2025, and significant improvement is expected by end-2025. - He Xiaopeng(CEO)

How should we view XPeng's smart driving tech advantage amid rising competition? When will XPeng's Ultra trim Turing chip offer a better software experience than competitors? - Tim Hsiao (Morgan Stanley)

2025Q2: We expect to launch the first vehicle with the Turing chip in 2025, and the smart driving system with over 10x performance improvement by 2026. - He Xiaopeng(CEO)

Contradiction Point 2

International Expansion and Localized Production

It involves differing statements about the focus and timelines for international expansion and localized production, which are key strategies for XPeng's growth.

Can you update on overseas localized production plans and how smart driving capabilities will drive international sales? - Xiaoyi Lei (Jefferies)

2025Q3: Overseas sales are expected to outpace domestic growth, driven by strong international demand and local product offerings. - Brian Gu(CFO)

What opportunities exist for XPeng's robotaxi strategy in technology and regulatory access? - Pingyue Wu (Citic Securities)

2025Q2: We believe we are well-positioned for international growth with our three new models coming out this year. - He Xiaopeng(CEO)

Contradiction Point 3

Robotaxi Service and Business Model

It involves the strategic direction and timeline for the Robotaxi business, which could impact investments and market positioning.

When will XPeng launch its Robotaxi service and what is the company's technology path and business model? - Ming-Hsun Lee (BofA Securities)

2025Q3: 2026 will see inflection points in Robotaxi development, with initial models ready for deployment. - He Xiaopeng (CEO)

How will XPeng apply its autonomous driving expertise to humanoid robots, and what are the products' advantages? - Xiaoyi Lei (Jefferies)

2025Q1: The Robotaxi business is still in the experimental phase, and meaningful revenue contribution from this business is not expected in the near future. - Brian Gu (CRO)

Contradiction Point 4

Humanoid Robot Production and Market Penetration

It involves the production timeline and market penetration strategy for humanoid robots, which could impact revenue projections and competitive positioning.

What is XPeng's technology roadmap and competitive advantage in humanoid robots, and what are the key commercialization milestones? - Y.C. Lai (JPMorgan Chase & Co)

2025Q3: IRON's mass production is challenging, but significant capability integration is expected by early 2026. - He Xiaopeng (CEO)

How will XPeng apply its autonomous driving expertise to humanoid robots, and what advantages do your products offer? - Xiaoyi Lei (Jefferies)

2025Q1: We continue to make progress in the development of our humanoid robotic solution. We expect production to begin in 2026. - He Xiaopeng (CEO)

Contradiction Point 5

Revenue Expectations from New Businesses

It involves the revenue expectations from new businesses, which is crucial for investor expectations and strategic planning.

Are there revenue estimates or breakdowns for new businesses such as Robotaxi, humanoid robots, and eVTOL over the next 1-3 years? - Tina Hou (Goldman Sachs)

2025Q3: Revenue contributions from these areas will be limited in 2026, but significant growth is expected as products reach scale. - Brian Gu (CRO)

Can you clarify sales expectations and whether significant sales growth is expected in the upcoming quarters? - Tim Hsiao (Morgan Stanley)

2025Q1: We first expect meaningful contributions from those emerging businesses only in 2026 or 2027 when we expect our EV volume to surge. - He Xiaopeng (CEO)