XP Soars 5.7% on Strong Earnings and Strategic Moves

Summary
• XP Inc. (XP) surges 5.73% to $20.005, hitting an intraday high of $20.065
• Turnover jumps to 4.78 million shares, outpacing its 1.2% average turnover rate
• Q2 earnings beat and strategic growth initiatives drive momentum
• 52-week range of $10.82–$20.64 highlights recent volatility

XP Inc. (XP) delivered a sharp intraday rally, fueled by robust Q2 earnings and strategic expansion. The stock’s 5.73% surge reflects investor confidence in its operational efficiency and market positioning, despite sector-wide scrutiny. With turnover surging and key technical indicators aligning, the move underscores a pivotal moment for the Brazilian fintech giant.

Q2 Earnings Beat and Strategic Growth Fuel XP's Rally
XP’s intraday surge stems from its Q2 2025 earnings report, which revealed record net income and improved operational efficiency. The company’s strategic focus on expanding its wealth management and digital education platforms, coupled with strong client asset growth, has reassured investors. Analysts highlight XP’s ability to maintain high return on equity (ROE) despite macroeconomic headwinds, with a trailing twelve-month ROE of 22.92%. Additionally, the initiation of a share repurchase program and positive valuation metrics (P/E of 11.95 vs. sector average of 22.28) have bolstered sentiment.

Capital Markets Sector Gains Momentum as XP Outperforms
The Capital Markets sector, led by The Charles Schwab Corporation (SCHW) with a 1.56% intraday gain, has seen mixed performance. XP’s 5.73% rally outpaces sector peers, reflecting its unique positioning in Brazil’s digital financial services market. While SCHW benefits from broader U.S. market trends, XP’s growth is driven by localized demand for low-fee investment platforms and fintech innovation. The sector’s average P/E of 22.28 underscores XP’s relative affordability, making it a compelling play for investors seeking high-growth, undervalued assets.

Options and Technicals: Capitalizing on XP's Bullish Momentum
• 200-day MA: $16.87 (below current price) • RSI: 76.46 (overbought) • MACD: 0.32 (bullish) • Bollinger Bands: $15.92–$19.33 (price above upper band)

XP’s technicals signal a continuation of its bullish trend, with key support at $18.17 and resistance at $20.06. The RSI’s overbought level (76.46) suggests potential consolidation, but the MACD’s positive divergence and strong volume indicate sustained momentum. For leveraged exposure, consider the XP20251121C20 and XP20251121C20.5 options, which align with the stock’s short-term trajectory.

• XP20251121C20 (Call): Strike $20, Expiry 11/21, IV 53.13%, Leverage 26.70%, Delta 0.52, Theta -0.037, Gamma 0.215, Turnover 11,435
- High leverage and moderate delta balance risk/reward; strong gamma ensures sensitivity to price moves.
- Payoff: At 5% upside ($21.00), profit = $1.00/share (100% return on premium).
• XP20251121C20.5 (Call): Strike $20.5, Expiry 11/21, IV 55.13%, Leverage 35.76%, Delta 0.42, Theta -0.037, Gamma 0.204, Turnover 8,286
- Aggressive play with high leverage and gamma; ideal for a breakout above $20.50.
- Payoff: At 5% upside ($21.00), profit = $0.50/share (50% return on premium).

Aggressive bulls may consider XP20251121C20.5 into a test of $20.50, while conservative traders can target XP20251121C20 for a safer, high-gamma entry.

Backtest XP Stock Performance
I’ve attempted to:1. Pull daily price data for XP Inc. (ticker XP.O) from 2022-01-01 through 2025-11-11.2. Generate “event dates” when XP.O registered a ≥ 6 % single-day gain (close-to-prior-close).3. Run an event-study back-test on those dates.The data-gathering steps completed successfully, but the back-test engine halted because the event-date list turned out to be empty. In other words, XP.O did not record any close-to-close jumps of at least 6 % in the stated period, so the engine had no events to analyse and threw an internal error.Next steps – please let me know which you prefer:• Lower the threshold (e.g., 5 %, 4 %, …) to capture more events, then rerun the study. • Redefine “intraday surge” (for example, using Open→Close change ≥ 6 % instead of Close→Close). • Analyse a different metric (e.g., volume spikes or news events) or a different ticker. Once you confirm the revised criterion, I’ll regenerate the event list and deliver the complete performance analysis.

XP’s Rally Gains Traction—Act on Key Levels
XP’s 5.73% surge reflects a confluence of strong earnings, strategic growth, and favorable technicals. The stock’s proximity to its 52-week high ($20.64) and robust RSI suggest a potential continuation, though overbought conditions may trigger a pullback. Investors should monitor the $20.06 resistance and $19.33 support levels. The sector leader, The Charles Schwab (SCHW), gained 1.56%, signaling broader market optimism. For immediate action, consider the XP20251121C20 option if $20.06 breaks, or XP20251121C20.5 for a high-leverage bet on a breakout. Watch for a close above $20.06 to confirm the trend’s sustainability.