Xometry (XMTR) Surges 23.4% to 52-Week High: What's Fueling This Record Rally?

Summary
• Xometry shares rocketed 23.4% intraday to $59.95, hitting the 52-week high of $60.52.
• Q3 revenue surged 28% YoY to $180.7M, with marketplace revenue up 31% to $167M.
• Adjusted EBITDA turned positive at $6.1M, and FY2025 guidance was raised to $676–$678M.

Today’s explosive move in Xometry’s stock reflects a perfect storm of record operational metrics, margin expansion, and strategic guidance upgrades. With the stock trading near its 52-week high and outperforming the broader Distributors sector, investors are scrambling to decipher whether this is a sustainable breakout or a short-term euphoria. The key lies in dissecting the company’s Q3 performance and options market dynamics.

Q3 Earnings Surge Drives XMTR's Record Rally
Xometry’s 23.4% intraday surge is directly tied to its blockbuster Q3 results. The company reported 31% YoY growth in marketplace revenue to $167 million, with gross margins expanding 210 bps to 35.7%. Adjusted EBITDA turned positive at $6.1 million, a $6.8 million improvement from the prior year. CEO Randy Altschuler highlighted the 21% growth in active buyers to 78,282 and 14% increase in high-value accounts ($50K+ spenders) to 1,724. The stock’s breakout above the 52-week high of $60.52 and 30-day moving average of $50.83 signals strong conviction in the company’s ability to scale its AI-powered manufacturing platform.

Distributors Sector Mixed as XMTR Outpaces GWW
While Xometry’s Distributors sector leader W.W. Grainger (GWW) fell 0.97%, the broader sector remains fragmented. M&A activity and margin pressures dominate the space, with peers like Core & Main and Ferguson facing lawsuits over pricing collusion. Xometry’s AI-driven margin expansion and enterprise adoption narrative position it as a disruptor, contrasting with traditional distributors’ struggles. The stock’s 23.4% move far outpaces sector volatility, suggesting investors are betting on its tech-enabled differentiation.

Options Playbook: Capitalizing on XMTR's Momentum with Gamma-Driven Contracts
• MACD: -0.424 (bearish divergence), Signal Line: -0.353, Histogram: -0.071 (negative momentum)
• RSI: 51.5 (neutral), Bollinger Bands: $46.10–$52.75 (price at upper band)
• 200D MA: $36.52 (far below current price), 30D MA: $50.83 (support level)

Top Options Contracts:
• XMTR20251121C60 (Call, $60 strike, Nov 21 expiry):
- IV: 67.45% (high volatility)
- Leverage: 16.48% (moderate)
- Delta: 0.535 (mid-range sensitivity)
- Theta: -0.1645 (aggressive time decay)
- Gamma: 0.0442 (high sensitivity to price swings)
- Turnover: 8,441 (liquid)
- Payoff at 5% upside: $5.97 (max(0, 62.94 - 60))
- Why: High gamma and IV make this ideal for short-term volatility plays.

• XMTR20251219C55 (Call, $55 strike, Dec 19 expiry):
- IV: 67.09% (high)
- Leverage: 7.08% (low)
- Delta: 0.694 (high sensitivity)
- Theta: -0.0843 (moderate decay)
- Gamma: 0.0246 (moderate sensitivity)
- Turnover: 27,529 (high liquidity)
- Payoff at 5% upside: $7.94 (max(0, 62.94 - 55))
- Why: High turnover and delta make this a safer bet for mid-term bullish exposure.

Action: Aggressive bulls should target XMTR20251121C60 for a 5% upside play, while XMTR20251219C55 offers a lower-risk, higher-liquidity alternative. Watch for a break above $60.52 to confirm the breakout.

Backtest Xometry Stock Performance
Below is the interactive back-test report for the “23 % Intraday Surge” strategy on XMTR from 2022-01-01 to 2025-11-04. Please explore the module for full details; key insights follow underneath.Key takeaways (do not duplicate module content):• The strategy under-performed; large intraday spikes in XMTR tended to reverse rather than continue, leading to negative aggregate returns. • Drawdowns were non-trivial despite tight risk controls, indicating post-spike volatility. • Momentum-style follow-through after extreme single-day jumps appears weak for this ticker; consider pairing with mean-reversion logic or stricter entry filters (e.g., volume confirmation, multi-day strength) before committing capital.Feel free to inspect individual trades and equity curves within the module and let me know if you’d like to iterate on parameters or explore alternative setups.

XMTR at Inflection Point: Ride the Wave or Secure Profits?
Xometry’s 23.4% surge is a testament to its Q3 outperformance and AI-driven margin expansion, but sustainability hinges on maintaining its 31% YoY growth in marketplace revenue. The stock’s proximity to the 52-week high and 30-day MA of $50.83 creates a critical juncture. While the Distributors sector remains mixed, XMTR’s outperformance against GWW (-0.97%) underscores its unique value proposition. Investors should monitor the $60.52 level for a breakout confirmation and consider the XMTR20251121C60 call for short-term gains. Act now: Secure profits if $60.52 breaks, or ride the momentum with gamma-driven options.