Xometry Skyrockets 38.58%—Is This the Dawn of a New Bull Run?

Summary
• Xometry (XMTR) surges 38.58% intraday, hitting a 52-week high of $47.46
• Q2 revenue jumps 23% YoY to $163M, driven by 26% growth in marketplace revenue
• Adjusted EBITDA turns positive at $3.9M, reversing a $2.6M loss in Q2 2024
• Options frenzy: 20 contracts traded, with XMTR20250815C42 seeing 132,583 shares turned over

Xometry’s stock has erupted in a historic intraday surge, defying market norms as it vaults 38.58% to $42.92. This meteoric rise follows a blockbuster Q2 report showcasing record revenue, margin expansion, and a strategic debt refinancing. With the stock trading near its 52-week high of $47.46 and options volatility spiking, investors are scrambling to decode whether this is a short-lived rally or the start of a sustained bull run.

Q2 Earnings and Debt Restructuring Ignite Xometry’s Surge
Xometry’s 38.58% intraday jump is fueled by a trifecta of catalysts: record Q2 revenue of $163 million (up 23% YoY), a 35.4% gross margin (up 190 bps YoY), and a $3.9 million Adjusted EBITDA profit (vs. a $2.6 million loss in Q2 2024). The company’s $250 million convertible debt refinancing, which includes a $63.35 cap price hedge, has alleviated near-term financial pressure and signaled confidence in its growth trajectory. Management’s guidance for $167–$169 million in Q3 revenue (18–19% YoY growth) and a 23–24% full-year marketplace growth outlook has further stoked optimism. The market is pricing in a rapid transition from a capital-intensive growth phase to a margin-expanding, cash-generative model.

Internet Services & Infrastructure Sector Mixed as Xometry Leads
While the Internet Services & Infrastructure sector remains fragmented, Xometry’s performance diverges sharply from peers. Broadband providers like Comcast and Charter face broadband subscriber losses, while cloud giants like Amazon and Microsoft report stable but unexciting growth. Xometry’s AI-driven manufacturing platform and enterprise integration capabilities position it as a disruptor in a $1.2 trillion global market. Its 22% year-over-year Active Buyer growth and 15% increase in high-spend accounts highlight its unique value proposition, contrasting with the sector’s reliance on traditional SaaS or telecom models.

Options and ETFs to Capitalize on Xometry’s Volatility
• RSI: 33.33 (oversold)
• MACD: -0.556 (bearish), Signal Line: -0.223, Histogram: -0.332 (declining bearish momentum)
• 200D MA: $30.68 (well below current price)
• Bollinger Bands: $29.98–$36.70 (price at 125% of upper band)

Xometry’s technicals suggest a short-term overbought condition, but the fundamentals justify a bullish stance. Key levels to watch: $45 (52-week high) and $37.60 (intraday low). The stock’s 12.5% turnover rate and 33.33% RSI indicate a potential pullback, but the options market is pricing in continued upside. For leveraged exposure, consider XMTR20250815C42 (call) and XMTR20250815P45 (put):

• XMTR20250815C42 (Call):
- Strike: $42, Expiration: 2025-08-15, IV: 94.72%, Leverage: 13.01%, Delta: 0.588, Theta: -0.209, Gamma: 0.055, Turnover: 132,583
- IV (high volatility) and Gamma (price sensitivity) make this ideal for a 5% upside move (target $45). Payoff: $3.00/share (45% return).
• XMTR20250815P45 (Put):
- Strike: $45, Expiration: 2025-08-15, IV: 94.85%, Leverage: 10.73%, Delta: -0.578, Theta: -0.015, Gamma: 0.055, Turnover: 92,290
- Delta (deep in-the-money) and IV (high) offer downside protection if the stock consolidates. Payoff: $2.05/share (45% return) if price drops to $40.

Aggressive bulls should buy XMTR20250815C42 ahead of the 52-week high breakout.

Backtest Xometry Stock Performance
Xometry, Inc. (XMTR) experienced a significant surge in its stock price following the announcement of its Q2 2025 earnings results. The stock price jumped by nearly 50% intraday, reaching levels not seen since 2022, and approaching the $50 mark. The impressive performance of Xometry's stock can be attributed to several key factors:1. Strong Q2 Performance: Xometry reported a robust second quarter, with revenue reaching $163 million, surpassing expectations by 3.87%, and a significant beat on earnings per share, achieving $0.09 compared to the forecast of $0.04. This resulted in a 105.01% earnings surprise.2. Marketplace Revenue Growth: The company's marketplace revenue grew by 26% year-over-year to $148 million, highlighting the increasing demand for its digital manufacturing solutions.3. Gross Margin Expansion: Xometry saw an expansion in gross margins, which contributed to the improved profitability and investor confidence in the company's operational efficiency.4. Full-Year Outlook Increase: The company increased its full-year 2025 revenue growth outlook to over 20%, indicating a positive outlook on its business trajectory.The stock's performance aligns with the remarkable 147.96% return Xometry has achieved over the past year, reflecting investor confidence in its growth prospects and competitive positioning.

Xometry’s Bull Run: A New Chapter or a Volatility Play?
Xometry’s 38.58% surge is a watershed moment, driven by Q2 outperformance and strategic debt restructuring. While technicals hint at a pullback, the fundamentals—23% revenue growth, 35.4% gross margin, and $226 million in cash—justify a bullish stance. Investors should monitor the $45 resistance and $37.60 support levels. The sector leader, Proto Labs (PRLB), gained 1.44% today, signaling broader manufacturing optimism. For those seeking leverage, XMTR20250815C42 and XMTR20250815P45 offer high-reward options. Act now: Buy XMTR20250815C42 if $45 breaks, or short XMTR20250815P45 if the stock consolidates below $40.