Xometry Soars 26% on Record Q3 Results, Surging Past 52-Week High Amid AI-Powered Manufacturing Momentum

Summary
• Xometry (XMTR) surges 26% intraday to $61.21, breaching its 52-week high of $61.36
• Q3 revenue jumps 28% YoY to $181M, with marketplace gross margin expanding 210 bps to 35.7%
• Adjusted EBITDA turns positive at $6.1M, and full-year guidance raised to $676–$678M
• Turnover spikes to 1.8M shares, with 4.2% of float traded in a single session

Today’s explosive move in Xometry reflects a perfect storm of operational outperformance and market optimism. The stock’s 26% surge—its largest intraday gain since its IPO—has been fueled by record Q3 results, including 31% YoY marketplace revenue growth and a dramatic improvement in Adjusted EBITDA. With the stock trading near its 52-week high and technical indicators flashing bullish signals, investors are now weighing whether this is a breakout moment or a volatile correction.

Q3 Earnings Catalyst: Margin Expansion and Strategic Guidance Hike
Xometry’s 26% intraday rally was ignited by its third-quarter results, which showcased a sharp acceleration in profitability and customer adoption. The company reported 28% YoY revenue growth to $181 million, with marketplace revenue—its core business—surging 31% to $167 million. Gross profit expanded 29% to $72 million, while marketplace gross margin hit 35.7%, up 210 bps year-over-year. Most notably, Adjusted EBITDA turned positive at $6.1 million, a $6.8 million improvement from the prior year. The company also raised full-year revenue guidance to $676–$678 million and Adjusted EBITDA to $16–$17 million, signaling confidence in its AI-driven platform’s ability to scale. CEO Randy Altschuler and CFO James Miln emphasized the strength of enterprise adoption and operating leverage, which together created a self-reinforcing cycle of margin expansion and network growth.

Industrial Distribution Sector Mixed as Xometry Outpaces Peers
While Xometry’s stock surged, the broader Industrial Distribution sector showed mixed performance. Sector leader W.W. Grainger (GWW) fell 1.04% on concerns about margin pressures, while M&A activity in the space—such as Houston Waterworks’ acquisition of a Kansas distributor—highlighted consolidation trends. Xometry’s AI-powered marketplace model, however, appears to be diverging from traditional distribution peers by leveraging digital transformation to drive margin expansion. The company’s 35.7% marketplace gross margin now exceeds the sector average for industrial distributors, which typically hover around 25–30%. This structural advantage, combined with its focus on high-margin supplier services, positions Xometry as a disruptive force in a sector still grappling with legacy cost structures.

Options Playbook: Leveraging Volatility and Gamma for Short-Term Gains
• 200-day average: $36.52 (far below current price)
• 30-day moving average: $50.83 (support level)
• RSI: 51.51 (neutral, but trending upward)
• MACD: -0.424 (bearish) vs. signal line -0.353 (mixed divergence)
• Bollinger Bands: Price at $61.21 vs. upper band $52.75 (overbought territory)

Xometry’s technicals suggest a short-term overbought condition, but the stock’s fundamentals and options activity indicate sustained momentum. The 52-week high at $61.36 is now a critical psychological level; a close above this could trigger a retest of the $65–$70 range. Key support levels include the 30-day MA at $50.83 and the 200-day MA at $36.52. For traders, the XMTR20251121C60 and XMTR20251219C60 call options offer compelling setups.

• XMTR20251121C60 (Call, $60 strike, Nov 21 expiry):
- Implied Volatility: 70.62% (high)
- Lverage Ratio: 13.35% (aggressive)
- Delta: 0.594 (moderate sensitivity)
- Theta: -0.1769 (rapid time decay)
- Gamma: 0.0403 (moderate sensitivity to price changes)
- Turnover: 16,510 (high liquidity)
- Payoff at 5% upside ($64.27): $4.27/share
- This contract benefits from high leverage and liquidity, ideal for a short-term bullish bet before the Nov 21 expiry.

• XMTR20251219C60 (Call, $60 strike, Dec 19 expiry):
- Implied Volatility: 57.20% (moderate)
- Lverage Ratio: 10.59% (balanced)
- Delta: 0.595 (moderate sensitivity)
- Theta: -0.0801 (moderate time decay)
- Gamma: 0.0311 (moderate sensitivity to price changes)
- Turnover: 20,790 (high liquidity)
- Payoff at 5% upside ($64.27): $4.27/share
- This option offers a longer time horizon (Dec 19 expiry) with similar leverage, making it suitable for a mid-term bullish stance.

Aggressive bulls should consider XMTR20251121C60 into a breakout above $61.36, while conservative traders may prefer XMTR20251219C60 for a more measured approach.

Backtest Xometry Stock Performance
Understood—before I pull the data and run the event back-test, I need to make sure I’m using the same definition of a “26 % intraday surge” that you have in mind.Typical choices are:1. High vs. prior close (High − Prior-Day Close) / Prior-Day Close ≥ 26 %2. Close vs. prior close (Close − Prior-Day Close) / Prior-Day Close ≥ 26 %3. Open-to-Close move (Close − Open) / Open ≥ 26 %Please let me know which of these rules (or another you prefer) should trigger an event. Once confirmed, I’ll automatically:• Pull XMTR daily OHLC data from 2022-01-01 to today. • Detect every date meeting the 26 % condition. • Run an event back-test to measure post-surge performance (returns, hit ratio, optimal holding period, etc.). • Present the results with an interactive visualization module.Kindly confirm the rule you’d like me to use, or tell me if you have a different definition or specific dates in mind.

Breakout or Bubble? Xometry’s 52-Week High Test Decides Next Move
Xometry’s 26% intraday surge has positioned it at a critical juncture. The stock’s ability to hold above $61.36—its 52-week high—will determine whether this is a sustainable breakout or a volatile correction. Technical indicators suggest overbought conditions, but the company’s Q3 results and raised guidance provide a strong fundamental foundation. Investors should monitor the 30-day MA at $50.83 as a key support level and watch for follow-through volume. Meanwhile, sector leader W.W. Grainger’s 1.04% decline underscores the importance of Xometry’s AI-driven margin expansion in a sector still reliant on traditional models. For now, the message is clear: if Xometry can maintain its momentum, the $65–$70 range is within reach. Watch for a close above $61.36 or a breakdown below $50.83 to confirm the next directional move.