Xometry Soars 11.29%—Is This the Dawn of a New Bull Run?

Summary
• Xometry (XMTR) hits 52-week high of $48.60, surging 11.29% from $43.04
• Q2 revenue jumps 23% to $163M, outpacing estimates
• Analysts raise price targets to $50–$55, with UBS, JMP, and JPMorgan leading the charge
• Options volume spikes to 958,901 shares, with 20 active contracts

Xometry’s stock has ignited a firestorm of activity, surging to a 12.5% intraday gain as the company’s Q2 results and analyst upgrades propel it to a one-year high. With revenue growth, margin improvements, and a flurry of bullish ratings, XMTR’s rally reflects a confluence of earnings momentum and strategic optimism. The stock’s sharp move above its 200-day average of $31.25 and into overbought territory on RSI (72.96) signals a critical juncture for traders.

Q2 Earnings and Analyst Upgrades Ignite Momentum
Xometry’s 11.29% surge is driven by a trifecta of catalysts: a 23% year-over-year revenue jump to $163 million, a 26% increase in marketplace revenue, and a string of analyst upgrades. The company’s Q2 results exceeded expectations, with improved gross margins and profitability gains, prompting JMP Securities and Goldman Sachs to raise price targets to $50 and $42, respectively. Cantor Fitzgerald upgraded XMTR to 'neutral' from 'underweight,' while UBS and others signaled cautious optimism. These developments, combined with a record $167–169 million Q3 revenue guidance, have repositioned Xometry as a high-conviction growth story.

Machinery Sector Gains Steam as Xometry Leads Rally
The Machinery sector, led by Caterpillar (CAT) with a 1.17% intraday gain, has seen renewed interest amid Xometry’s breakout. While CAT’s move reflects broader industrial demand, Xometry’s surge is fueled by earnings-driven optimism. The sector’s focus on margin expansion and operational efficiency aligns with Xometry’s Q2 results, suggesting a broader trend of value creation in capital-intensive industries.

Options and ETFs to Capitalize on XMTR’s Bullish Momentum
• MACD: 2.27 (above signal line 1.08), RSI: 72.96 (overbought), 200-day average: $31.25 (below current price)
• Bollinger Bands: Upper $45.09 (near current price), Middle $35.45, Lower $25.81
• Key levels: 200-day support at $32.51, 52-week high at $48.60

Xometry’s technicals suggest a continuation of its bullish trend, with RSI near overbought levels and MACD in positive territory. The stock’s break above the upper Bollinger Band indicates strong momentum, though traders should monitor for a pullback to the 30-day average of $35.01. For options, XMTR20250919C50 and XMTR20251017C50 stand out:

• XMTR20250919C50 (Call, $50 strike, 9/19 expiry):
- IV: 54.66% (moderate), Leverage Ratio: 19.05% (high), Delta: 0.4377 (moderate), Theta: -0.0631 (high time decay), Gamma: 0.0463 (high sensitivity)
- Payoff: At 5% upside (target $50.295), payoff = $0.295 per contract. This option balances leverage and liquidity, ideal for a short-term bullish bet.

• XMTR20251017C50 (Call, $50 strike, 10/17 expiry):
- IV: 48.45% (moderate), Leverage Ratio: 14.05% (high), Delta: 0.49 (moderate), Theta: -0.043 (high time decay), Gamma: 0.0398 (high sensitivity)
- Payoff: At 5% upside (target $50.295), payoff = $0.295 per contract. This contract offers extended exposure with strong gamma, suitable for a mid-term hold.

Aggressive bulls may consider XMTR20250919C50 into a bounce above $50.50, leveraging its high leverage ratio and moderate delta for a controlled risk-reward profile.

Backtest Xometry Stock Performance
The backtest of XMTR's performance after a 11% intraday increase shows mixed results. While the stock experienced a maximum return of 3.70% on day 58, the 3-day win rate was 50.10%, the 10-day win rate was 53.81%, and the 30-day win rate was 50.10%, indicating a moderate likelihood of positive returns in the short term. However, the average returns over the 3, 10, and 30 days were only 0.20%, 0.95%, and 1.88%, respectively, suggesting that while there was some upside potential, the overall returns were relatively modest.

Act Fast on Key Levels—Xometry’s Rally Gains Legs
Xometry’s 11.29% surge is a testament to its Q2 outperformance and analyst-driven optimism, but technicals suggest caution. The stock’s break above the 52-week high and overbought RSI (72.96) signal a potential consolidation phase. Traders should watch the $48.60 level for a possible pullback and the 200-day average ($31.25) as a critical support. Meanwhile, the Machinery sector’s leader, Caterpillar (CAT), gained 1.17%, reinforcing the sector’s strength. For XMTR, the path forward hinges on sustaining momentum above $48.60 and managing overbought conditions. Aggressive bulls may target XMTR20250919C50 for a 5% upside scenario, while hedgers should monitor the 200-day average for a potential reversal.