XOM Options Signal Bullish Momentum: Target $135 Calls as Volatility Peaks

• Exxon Mobil (XOM) surges 2.79% to $130.08, breaking above 30D and 200D moving averages.
• Options market shows 0.65 put/call open interest imbalance, with heavy call buying at $135 and $140 strikes.
• Trump’s Venezuela comments and Guyana project optimism fuel mixed sentiment, but technicals favor a breakout.

Here’s the core insight: XOM’s options activity and technicals align for a bullish breakout, with key resistance at $135–$140. The stock’s 2.79% intraday gain, coupled with a 0.65 put/call ratio (favoring calls), suggests traders are pricing in a sharp move higher ahead of earnings on Jan 30. Let’s break down why this setup matters—and how to play it.

Bullish Imbalance in OTM Calls, Quiet Put Activity

The options chain tells a clear story: traders are betting on a near-term rally. For Friday’s expiration (Jan 16), the $135 call (XOM20260116C135) leads with 5,829 open contracts, followed by the $140 call (6,172 OI). These strikes sit just above XOM’s current price, indicating positioning for a push into overbought territory. Meanwhile, puts are concentrated at deep out-of-the-money levels like $105 (29,784 OI), suggesting limited downside concern.

The 0.65 put/call ratio (open interest) isn’t just a number—it’s a signal. When calls dominate, it often precedes a short-term breakout, especially when volume spikes (10.7M shares traded today). But don’t ignore the risks: if XOM dips below the 200D MA ($114.29) or fails to hold $130, the bullish narrative could unravel. No major block trades today, so no whale moves to worry about—yet.

News Flow: Geopolitical Noise vs. Operational Clarity

Trump’s Venezuela threats and Shell’s North Sea deal pause add noise, but XOM’s fundamentals are unshaken. The company’s Guyana project is a cash machine, slashing breakeven costs and boosting production. Analysts are bullish on its $132.17 price target, and the dividend hike to $1.03 (3.3% yield) locks in income-focused investors.

But here’s the catch: Venezuela’s political risks linger. While XOM’s CEO calls it “uninvestable,” the stock’s resilience suggests investors trust its Guyana and Permian Basin plays to offset short-term drama. The key is whether oil prices hold above $80/bbl—any drop could reignite bearish sentiment.

Actionable Trades: Calls for Aggressive Plays, Stock for Core Position

For options traders, the $135 call (XOM20260116C135) is a high-conviction bet. With XOM at $130.08, this strike offers ~7% upside if the stock closes above $135 by Friday. For a longer play, the $134 call (XOM20260123C134) (3,094 OI) targets a post-earnings pop. Both contracts benefit from rising implied volatility (25.57 today) and strong RSI (66.64) suggesting overbought momentum.

Stock buyers should target an entry near $130.00—XOM’s current price—with a stop-loss below the 200D MA at $114.29. A breakout above $135 would validate the bullish case, with $140 as a stretch target. For hedgers, the $119 put (XOM20260123P119) (2,479 OI) offers downside protection at a fraction of the cost.

Volatility on the Horizon

XOM’s technicals and options activity paint a clear picture: the stock is primed for a move. With earnings on Jan 30 and Trump’s Venezuela saga unresolved, volatility will spike. But the data favors bulls—especially if oil prices stabilize and Guyana production ramps.

Your takeaway? Position for a breakout with the $135 call or a core buy at $130. But keep a close eye on the 200D MA. In this market, momentum is your friend—but only if you don’t let it blind you to the risks.