XOM Options Signal Bullish Momentum: Key Strikes and Trade Setups for Q4 2025

• Exxon Mobil’s Q3 2025 earnings hit $7.5B, with $6.3B in free cash flow and $9.4B in shareholder returns.
• Deepwater Brazil’s Bacalhau project kicks production, unlocking 1B+ barrels of oil equivalent.
• Options data shows call open interest dominates (611K vs. 409K puts), with heavy positioning at $120–$125 calls.
• Price action sits above all major moving averages, with RSI at 61.3 and MACD trending higher.

Here’s the deal: XOM’s options market and fundamentals are painting a clear picture. Investors are pricing in a bullish breakout, backed by strong earnings, operational wins, and technical momentum. But let’s dig into why this setup matters—and where the risks lie.

What the Options Chain Reveals About Market Sentiment

The options market isn’t whispering—it’s shouting. For Friday’s expirations, $120 and $125 calls dominate open interest, with 38,735 and 28,105 contracts outstanding, respectively. That’s not random noise; it’s a bet that XOM will punch through its 30-day resistance of $114.29 and test the $120 Bollinger Band.

On the downside, puts at $110 and $115 have 9,037 and 8,784 contracts open. While that’s significant, the put/call ratio of 0.67 (based on open interest) tells us bulls are in control. Think of it like a tug-of-war: for every $110 put bet, there are 1.5 call bets chasing higher prices.

No major block trades are on the radar, which means this is retail and institutional money flowing in lockstep. The risk? If oil prices stumble or earnings estimates get revised, those $120–$125 calls could turn into a short-term trap. But for now, the message is clear: the market expects XOM to rise.

Company News: Why This Isn’t Just a Options Play

Exxon’s third-quarter results weren’t just solid—they were a masterclass in capital discipline. $7.5B in earnings? Check. $6.3B in free cash flow? Check. Shareholder returns hitting $9.4B? That’s a statement. Combine that with the Bacalhau project in Brazil—adding 220,000 barrels a day—and you’ve got a company that’s executing on both short- and long-term value.

But here’s the kicker: investors aren’t just reacting to the past. The Bacalhau project’s 1B+ barrels of oil equivalent are a tailwind for 2026 and beyond. That’s why the options market is pricing in optimism. The challenge? Oil prices are still volatile, and any geopolitical hiccup could pause the rally. Still, Exxon’s balance sheet and operational efficiency give it a buffer most peers don’t have.

Actionable Trade Ideas: Where to Put Your Money

Let’s get specific. For options traders, the XOM 120 Call (Friday expiry) is a no-brainer. With 38,735 contracts open, this strike is a liquidity magnet. If XOM closes above $120 by Friday, those contracts could see exponential gains. For a longer-term play, the XOM 124 Call (next Friday expiry) has 2,107 contracts open—enough to suggest smart money is hedging for a post-earnings pop.

Stock traders, here’s your playbook:

• Entry: Consider buying XOM near $118.50 if it holds above the 30-day moving average ($114.69).
• Targets: First resistance is at $119.50 (intraday high), then $120 (Bollinger Band). A break above $120 could take it to $124–$125.
• Stop Loss: If XOM dips below $114.11 (30-day support), it could test the 200-day line at $108.27.

For downside protection, a put spread at $115 and $110 could cap losses if oil prices tank. But given the current momentum, I’d lean bullish unless there’s a macro shock.

Volatility on the Horizon: What to Watch

The next two weeks will be critical. Exxon’s 100-day moving average ($112.19) is a psychological hurdle—it’s already in the rearview. If the stock holds above $115, the $120–$125 range becomes a realistic target. But keep an eye on the RSI: at 61.3, it’s not overbought yet, so there’s room for a 5–7% rally before caution sets in.

The bigger picture? Exxon’s balance sheet, operational wins, and options positioning are all aligned. This isn’t a flash-in-the-pan trade—it’s a setup built for Q4 momentum. Just don’t ignore the puts at $110; they’re a reminder that oil markets can turn on a dime. Stay nimble, and let the data guide your decisions.