XOM Options Signal Bullish Momentum: Calls at $119 Dominate as Earnings Fuel Upside Potential

• Exxon Mobil’s Q3 2025 earnings of $7.5B and $14.8B in cash flow drove a 0.33% intraday rally to $115.07.
• Options data shows call open interest (OI) at $119 is 8398—triple the nearest put OI at $112 (1602)—hinting at aggressive bullish bets.
• Technical indicators (MACD, RSI, Bollinger Bands) confirm a short- and long-term bullish trend with key support/resistance levels defined.

Here’s the core insight: XOM’s options market is pricing in a high-probability upside breakout, backed by strong fundamentals and technical alignment. The stock shows clear upside potential but faces risks if it fails to hold above $113.60.

Bullish Sentiment Locked in Calls at $119

Let’s start with the options chain. For Friday’s expiration, the $119 call is the most heavily bet strike, with 8398 open contracts. That’s not just noise—it’s a signal. Think of it like a football crowd cheering for a Hail Mary pass: traders are betting XOM will break through $119, which sits just 3.4% above the current price. The next call strikes ($117, $118) also show significant OI, forming a cluster of bullish conviction.

On the put side, the top strikes ($112, $114) have much lower OI (1602 and 1411, respectively). This isn’t a red flag—it just means the market isn’t pricing in a sharp selloff. But here’s the catch: if XOM dips below $113.60 (the middle Bollinger Band), those puts could suddenly gain traction. The put/call ratio of 0.62 (calls dominate) suggests a structural bias toward buying the dip, but don’t ignore the risk of a short-term pullback.

Earnings and Projects Fuel the Bull Case

Exxon’s Q3 results are the rocket fuel here. $7.5B in earnings and $9.4B returned to shareholders isn’t just a one-off—it’s a sign of sustained profitability. The company’s push into battery anode production via the Superior Graphite acquisition adds a new growth vector. Investors love stories with clear catalysts, and XOM’s eight completed 2025 projects (out of 10) show operational momentum.

But here’s where perception matters: while the fundamentals are strong, retail traders might be underestimating the impact of XOM’s debt-to-capital ratio (13.5%). That’s low by energy sector standards, but if rates spike, refinancing risks could pressure the stock. For now, though, the market is focused on the dividend hike ($1.03/share) and cash flow generation.

Actionable Trade Ideas: Calls, Puts, and Price Levels

For options traders, the $119 call expiring Friday is a high-conviction play. If XOM closes above $119 by Friday, this strike could see explosive gains. For a longer-term bet, the $120 call expiring next Friday (OI: 1689) offers a slightly cheaper premium with more time to reach the target.

Stock traders should consider entry near $113.60 (the middle Bollinger Band) if support holds. A breakout above $115.10 (intraday high) would validate the bullish case, with a first target at $117 (a key call strike) and a stretch target at $119. If you’re hedging, a put spread at $114 (OI: 1411) could cap downside risk while staying aligned with the overall trend.

Volatility on the Horizon

The next 10 days will be critical. XOM’s proximity to the $119 call cluster means even a modest rally could trigger a self-fulfilling prophecy as OI holders look to lock in profits. Conversely, a drop below $112.62 (intraday low) would test the resolve of bullish bets.

Here’s the bottom line: XOM is in a golden cross setup, with the 30D MA (113.61) crossing above the 200D MA (110.04). The options market and technicals are in sync, but don’t ignore the risks. This isn’t a binary trade—it’s a calculated bet on momentum continuing. Stay nimble, and watch those $119 calls like a hawk.