XOM Options Signal Bullish Momentum: Call OI Surges at $116 as Puts Fade Below $108

• XOM surges 1.24% to $114.11, trading near its 52-week high and above all major moving averages.
• Options market favors bullish bets: Call open interest (OI) dominates at $116 and $120 strikes, while puts cluster below $108.
• News flow reinforces optimism: Guyana production, BlackRock partnership, and India exports highlight XOM’s strategic momentum.

The options market and technicals are painting a clear picture: XOM has upside potential. With call OI surging at key strikes and the stock breaking through Bollinger Bands, now’s the time to lean into the bullish narrative—while keeping an eye on the risks.

Bullish Sentiment Locked in at $116 and $120

Let’s start with the options data. This Friday’s call OI is concentrated at $116 (7,595 contracts) and $120 (4,153), while puts max out at $107 (4,566) and $108 (4,565). The put/call ratio of 0.636 (put OI vs. call OI) shows a clear tilt toward bullish positioning. Think of it like a crowd at a concert: most people are buying tickets to the front row (calls), while only a few are hedging the back (puts).

What does this mean? Traders are pricing in a potential breakout above $116, especially with XOM already trading near its 20-day high. The $116 strike acts as a psychological magnet—like a speed bump that, if cleared, could send the stock charging toward $120. But don’t ignore the puts: the $107–$108 cluster suggests some investors are bracing for a pullback, though the volume is far lower than the calls.

News Flow Fuels the Bull Case

Now, let’s connect the dots with the headlines. Wells Fargo’s endorsement of XOM as a "must-buy" in a volatile market isn’t just noise—it’s validation of the stock’s resilience. The BlackRock partnership to rewrite carbon accounting rules adds another layer of credibility, positioning XOM as a leader in the energy transition. And those 4 million barrels of Guyana crude heading to India? That’s real money moving, not just ESG buzzwords.

Here’s the kicker: these developments aren’t just good news—they’re catalysts. Investors are betting XOM’s production growth and strategic partnerships will keep the stock climbing. But remember, news can swing both ways. If carbon regulations tighten faster than expected, or if Guyana’s output misses forecasts, the puts at $107–$108 could suddenly look like a smart play.

Trade Ideas: Calls, Breakouts, and Precision Entries

Let’s get actionable. For options traders, the $116 call expiring Friday is a high-conviction play. With XOM already at $114.11, a close above $116 would validate the bullish thesis. If you want a longer runway, the $119 call expiring next Friday offers leverage on a potential push toward $120. Both strikes align with the OI hotspots, so liquidity won’t be an issue.

For stock buyers, the $113.07 middle Bollinger Band is a key entry level. If XOM holds here, it could rally to test the upper band at $116.35. A breakdown below $112.21 (30-day support) would trigger defensive moves—consider the $108 put expiring next Friday as insurance if the stock stumbles.

Volatility on the Horizon

XOM’s setup is textbook bullish: technicals, options flow, and news all align. But markets are fickle. If the stock gaps below $112.35 tomorrow, the puts at $107–$108 could see a surge in demand. Conversely, a close above $116.34 (upper Bollinger) would turn this into a breakout trade. Either way, the next 72 hours will tell us if this is a short-term pop or the start of a larger trend.

Bottom line: XOM is in a sweet spot right now. The options market is pricing in a move up, the fundamentals are strong, and the technicals are primed for a breakout. But as always, keep a stop-loss in place and watch those support levels like a hawk. In this market, momentum is a friend—but it can turn quickly.