XOM Options Signal Bullish Breakout Potential: Focus on $119 Calls and Strategic Entry Zones

• Exxon Mobil (XOM) trades at $117.86, up 0.61% with volume surging past 5 million shares.
• Options market shows 4393 open interest in $119 calls expiring Friday—highest of any strike—while puts top at $115 with 2975 OI.
• Analyst price target of $128.67 and new hydrogen partnerships hint at long-term upside, but Scotland plant closure adds near-term noise.

Here’s the takeaway: XOM’s options activity and technicals are painting a clear picture of upside potential. The stock is perched above key moving averages, with call options at $119 and $121 showing heavy institutional positioning. While the RSI at 44 suggests room to run, the real story lies in how options market makers are hedging for a breakout. Let’s break it down.

Bullish Imbalance in Options: Why $119 Calls Are the Sweet Spot

The options chain tells a tale of conviction. For Friday expiration, XOM20251205C119 and XOM20251205C121 dominate with 4393 and 4154 open interest respectively. That’s not random—it’s a signal that smart money is pricing in a move above $118.77 (today’s intraday high). Meanwhile, puts at $115 and $116 (2975 OI) act as a safety net for downside risks, but the call/put ratio of 0.67 (favoring calls) suggests the crowd is leaning long.

But here’s the catch: If XOM fails to hold above its 30-day support at $115.88, those puts could trigger a short-term selloff. No block trades to worry about today, but the options data implies a high probability of a directional move—just not yet clear which way.

News Flow: Clean Energy Alliances Outweigh Near-Term Headwinds

XOM’s partnership with BASF to produce low-emission hydrogen is a game-changer. This isn’t just greenwashing—it positions XOM as a hydrogen leader in a $300B+ market by 2030. The Bahia NGL pipeline expansion with Enterprise Products also adds midstream grit, boosting operational efficiency. Analysts are penciling in $128.67 as a fair target, and for good reason.

The Scotland plant closure? A speed bump, not a roadblock. Yes, 200 jobs lost will dent sentiment, but XOM’s focus on high-return projects and $0.98 dividend yield (at current price) keeps the long-term story intact. Retail traders might overreact to the closure, but the fundamentals remain intact.

Actionable Trade Ideas: Calls for the Breakout, Stock for the Grind

For options players: XOM20251205C119 is your best bet if XOM closes above $118.77 by Friday. The $119 strike is just 1.7% out of the money but sits at the upper Bollinger Band (120.24), making it a logical target for a short-term pop. If you want to stretch time, XOM20251212C121 (2172 OI) offers more runway for the hydrogen story to play out.

For stock buyers: Consider entry near $115.90 if the 30-day support holds. Your first target is the 200-day MA at $110.89 (wait, that’s below current price—correction needed). Actually, aim for a $120 breakout, with a hard stop at $115.87. A close above $118.77 validates the bullish case, and the analyst price target of $128.67 becomes a realistic stretch if oil prices hold above $70/barrel.

Volatility on the Horizon: Position for the Long Game

XOM’s options and news flow align on one thing: this stock is setting up for a breakout. The clean energy partnerships add tailwinds, while the technicals (bullish Kline, above 200D MA) suggest the 10% gap to $128.67 isn’t out of reach. That said, keep an eye on the RSI—if it dips below 40, it could signal a pullback before the next leg higher. For now, the call-heavy options market and analyst optimism say one thing: this is a stock worth owning.