XOM Options Signal Bullish Bias: Calls at $121–$123 Dominate as Puts at $111 Hint at Downside Caution—Here’s How to Play It

• XOM trades at $120.09, down 0.74% from $120.99, but MACD (0.92) and RSI (59.24) suggest short-term bullish momentum.
• Options market shows heavy call open interest at $121, $123, and $126, with a put/call ratio of 0.69 (calls dominate).
• Institutional buying and a dividend hike signal confidence, but insider selling and oversupply risks linger.

The stock isn’t screaming ‘buy’ or ‘sell’—it’s whispering ‘watch the $121–$123 level.’ The options data and technicals point to a tight battle between bulls eyeing a breakout and bears hedging near $111. Let’s break it down.Bullish Calls at $121–$123 vs. Bearish Puts at $111: What’s the Play?

The options chain tells a story of cautious optimism. For this Friday’s expiration, XOM20260102C121 and XOM20260102C123 have 5,178 and 5,088 open contracts—nearly 10,000 calls concentrated just above the current price. That’s not accidental. Traders are positioning for a potential push above $121.37 (Bollinger Upper Band) or a breakout past $123. The histogram (MACD > signal line) and 30D MA at $117.52 also support a bullish tilt.

But don’t ignore the puts. XOM20260102P111 has 4,989 open contracts, the largest put OI. That’s a red flag for downside risk—though $111 is far from today’s price, it suggests some players are hedging against a sharp drop. The 200D MA at $111.62 adds context: if XOM breaks below $119.87 (intraday low), the 200D MA could become a psychological anchor.

Block trading is quiet, so no whale moves to complicate things. For now, the call/put imbalance leans bullish, but the $111 put OI is a reminder: volatility isn’t gone.

News Flow: Dividend Hike and Institutional Buys Back XOM’s Resilience

Exxon’s recent dividend increase to $1.03/share (3.4% yield) and Q3 earnings driven by refining efficiency are positives. Institutional buyers like Apella Capital and Sagace Wealth added 38,807 shares and 61.8% ownership, respectively—confidence in XOM’s refining and LNG bets. But the VP’s sale of 3,000 shares at $117.19 and analyst warnings about oil oversupply add nuance. The market isn’t ignoring risks, but the overall narrative is one of strategic resilience.

Actionable Trades: Calls for Breakouts, Puts for Protection

For options: Buy XOM20260109C121 (next Friday’s $121 call) at $1.50–$1.70. If XOM breaks above $121.37 (Bollinger Upper Band), this call could gain 20%+ in a day. Alternatively, a bullish call spread using XOM20260109C123 (OI: 1,876) and XOM20260109C126 (OI: 1,674) caps risk while targeting a $123–$126 move.

For the stock: Consider entry near $116.06 (30D support) if it holds. A bounce here could target $123. If you’re bearish, a put spread using XOM20260109P114 (OI: 730) and XOM20260109P111 (OI: 3,256) hedges against a drop below $114.58 (Bollinger Lower Band).

Volatility on the Horizon: Bulls Have the Edge, But Stay Nimble

The data isn’t screaming for a moonshot, but it’s clear: XOM is in a tight range with calls dominating the options market. The $121–$123 calls suggest a breakout attempt, while the 200D MA at $111.62 acts as a floor. If crude prices stabilize and refining margins hold, XOM could test $126 by mid-January. But if oversupply fears resurface, the $111 puts will glow brighter. For now, the call-heavy OI and technicals favor a bullish bias—just keep an eye on that $111 level. It’s not a death sentence, but a warning shot.