XOM Options Signal Bullish Bias: Calls at $120–$125 Dominate as Technicals Hint at Breakout Potential

• XOM trades at $117.42, up 0.06% with volume surging to 6.2M shares.
• Options open interest shows 38,081 calls at $120 (this Friday’s expiry) vs. 8,925 puts at $115.
• MACD and RSI suggest a short-term bearish pause but long-term bullish momentum.

Here’s the core insight: XOM’s options market is heavily skewed bullish, with call open interest outpacing puts by a 0.67 ratio. Technicals hint at a potential breakout above $119.00, but traders must watch for a pullback to key support at $116.47. Let’s break down what this means for your strategy.

Bullish Sentiment Locked in at $120–$125 Calls

Options market participants are clearly eyeing a price surge. The $120 strike (this Friday’s expiry) has 38,081 open calls—the highest of any strike—while the $125 strike adds 27,975. That’s 66,056 contracts betting on a move above $120 in just five days. For context, the stock is currently trading at $117.42, so this isn’t a far-out gamble. It’s a calculated bet on a short-term breakout.

But it’s not all one-sided optimism. The $115 put strike has 8,925 open contracts, suggesting some hedging activity. Still, the call/put imbalance tells a story: market makers and institutional players are pricing in a higher probability of a rally. The risk? If XOM fails to break above $119.00 (intraday high), the heavy call open interest could trigger profit-taking, creating a headwind.

No Block Trades, But Options Tell a Clear Tale

There are no notable block trades to complicate the narrative, which means the options data isn’t being skewed by large institutional moves. This simplifies the read: the $120–$125 call dominance is organic, driven by retail and institutional players alike. The lack of bearish block trades also means there’s no hidden short-term bear case to worry about.

No News, But Technicals Are the Story

Surprisingly, there’s no recent headline news to drive XOM’s price action. That means the options activity isn’t reacting to earnings, guidance, or geopolitical events. Instead, it’s a pure technical play. The stock is sitting just above its 30-day moving average ($115.07) and well above the 200-day ($110.55). The RSI at 58.67 isn’t overbought, so there’s room for upward momentum. The Bollinger Bands show the price is trading near the middle band, which often precedes a breakout—either up or down. But the options data leans firmly on the upside.

Actionable Trades: Calls, Puts, and Stock Entries

For options traders, the most compelling setup is the $120 call expiring this Friday. If XOM closes above $120 by Friday, these contracts could see exponential gains. A tighter play: the $121 call (5,571 OI) if you want to balance risk and reward. For downside protection, consider a bear put spread at $115 and $110. The $115 strike has 8,925 OI, while the $110 strike has 8,330—both expiring this Friday. This limits risk if the stock dips but caps losses if it rallies.

Stock traders should look to enter near $117.00 if the price holds above the 30-day MA ($115.07). A breakout above $119.00 (intraday high) could target the upper Bollinger Band at $120.45. A stop-loss below $116.47 (middle Bollinger Band) would protect against a reversal. For a longer-term play, the 200-day MA at $110.55 is a critical support level—if the stock dips there, it could present a buy opportunity.Volatility on the Horizon

The key takeaway? XOM is in a tight trading range with heavy call pressure at $120–$125. The technicals and options data align on a bullish bias, but the stock needs to break out of its consolidation phase. If it does, the $120–$125 calls could be the catalyst for a rally. If it fails, the $116.47 support level will be critical. Either way, the options market is pricing in a directional move—so traders should prepare for a breakout, not a grind. Stay nimble, watch the $119.00 level, and let the data guide your next move.