XOM Options Signal Bullish Bias: Calls at $116 Dominate as Technicals Point to Breakout Potential

• Exxon Mobil (XOM) trades at $112.78, with calls at $116 (OI: 5,716) outpacing puts at $110 (OI: 4,956).
• Technical indicators hint at a short-term bullish trend, with price near key support/resistance clusters.
• Options data suggests aggressive positioning for a potential $113–$116 breakout ahead of Friday’s expiry.

Here’s the core insight: XOM’s options market is leaning hard into a bullish narrative. Call open interest (OI) at the $116 strike dwarfs put activity at $110, while technicals align with a short-term breakout above $113. This isn’t just noise—it’s a signal that traders are pricing in a sharp move higher, possibly driven by macro energy trends or earnings optimism. Let’s break down what this means for your strategy.

Where the Money Is: Calls at $116 Outpace Puts at $110

The options chain tells a clear story. For Friday’s expiry, the $116 call (OI: 5,716) is the most heavily bet strike, followed by $114 (OI: 5,192). Puts trail with $110 (OI: 4,956) and $108 (OI: 4,736) leading. This 1.15x call/put OI ratio (for OTM strikes) suggests aggressive bullish positioning.

But here’s the catch: while the call skew points to a potential $116+ move, the puts at $110 and $108 act as a hedge. Think of it like a seesaw—traders are betting on a rally but aren’t ignoring the risk of a pullback below $112.22 (30D support). The lack of block trades adds nuance: no massive institutional bets to distort the data, so retail and smaller players are driving this setup.

No News, But Technicals Tell a Story

The absence of headline news means fundamentals aren’t the immediate catalyst. However, technicals are primed for a breakout. XOM’s price sits just below its 30D SMA ($113.04) and within Bollinger Bands’ middle ($113.13). A close above $113.36 (intraday high) could trigger a rally toward the upper band at $116.43.

The RSI at 49.8 suggests neutrality, but the MACD histogram (-0.22) hints at fading bearish momentum. This creates a vacuum where options buyers—especially at $116—are positioning for a reversal. If the stock holds above $111.99 (intraday low), the technical case for a $116+ move strengthens.

Actionable Trades: Calls at $116, Puts at $110, and a Core Buy Setup

For options traders, the $116 call (expiring Friday) is a high-conviction play. With XOM at $112.78, this strike offers ~3.7% upside if the stock breaks $116 by expiry. For a longer-term bet, the $119 call (next Friday expiry, OI: 4,661) could capitalize on a sustained rally.

On the downside, the $110 put (Friday expiry) acts as insurance. If XOM dips below $112.22, this strike offers ~2.4% protection. For stock traders, consider entries near $112.22–$112.35 (30D support) with a target at $116.43 (Bollinger Upper Band). A stop-loss below $111.99 would limit risk if the trend falters.

Volatility on the Horizon: Balancing Bullish Momentum and Caution

The key takeaway? XOM is in a tight trading range, but options data and technicals align for a potential breakout. The $116 call strike is a focal point—watch volume and price action this week to confirm. If the stock holds above $113, the 200D SMA ($109.76) becomes a psychological floor. But don’t ignore the puts at $110: a sudden drop below $111.99 could reignite bearish sentiment.

This isn’t a binary call. It’s a setup where disciplined traders can capitalize on a directional move while hedging downside risk. The next 72 hours will tell if the bulls can push XOM through $116—or if the puts at $110 will force a retest of support. Either way, the options market has already priced in volatility. Now it’s time to see if the stock delivers.