XOM Options Signal Bullish Bet: Calls at $121–$123 Highlight Upside Breakout Potential Amid Strategic Moves

• XOM surges 1.33% to $120.70, with call open interest (OI) outpacing puts 529K to 368K, signaling strong bullish momentum.
• Top call OI at $121–$123 strikes (4,664–3,758 contracts) suggests institutional positioning for a $123+ breakout.
• Exxon’s AI-driven cost cuts and Permian basin dominance underpin resilience, even as it pauses speculative hydrogen projects.

The stock is primed for a short-term rally, with options data and technicals aligning on a $123 target. But watch for $115.91 support—break below that, and the bullish case weakens.Bullish Sentiment Locked in $121–$123 Calls

Options market participants are betting big on Exxon’s near-term upside. The $121 and $123 call strikes (expiring Jan 2, 2026) dominate open interest, with 4,664 and 3,758 contracts respectively. This isn’t just noise—it’s a vote of confidence in XOM’s ability to break above its 30-day moving average ($117.40) and test the $123 psychological level.

The put/call ratio of 0.695 (calls > puts) reinforces this bias. While $111 puts (4,989 OI) hint at some downside hedging, the sheer volume of call buying suggests traders expect a sharp rebound. The risk? If oil prices crater or legal challenges escalate, the $115.91 support zone (30D support) could become a battleground.

Strategic Moves Bolster Bull Case

Exxon’s recent headlines tell a story of disciplined growth. The Bahia pipeline acquisition and Mozambique LNG project resumption signal a focus on high-return infrastructure. Meanwhile, freezing the hydrogen plant—amid weak demand—shows management’s willingness to cut losses.

But here’s the kicker: low-cost production in the Permian and Guyana keeps Exxon’s margins fat, even if crude dips. Analysts are penciling in $135 as a 2026 target, and the options market is already pricing in a chunk of that optimism.

Trade Ideas: Calls for the Breakout, Stock for the Grind

• Options Play: Buy XOM20260109C123 (Jan 9 $123 call). With 1,088 OI and XOM trading at $120.70, this strike offers leverage if the stock cracks $123. Target: $127 for 7% gains; stop if XOM dips below $120.
• Stock Play: Enter near $119.40 (intraday low) with a tight stop at $118.50. If XOM holds, aim for $123 (RSI suggests overbought at 58, but momentum is strong).
• Bear Hedge: Buy XOM20260109P115 (Jan 9 $115 put) for downside protection. It’s a cheaper bet than the $111 put, with enough cushion to guard against a $115.91 support break.

Volatility on the Horizon

Exxon’s options market is a microcosm of its broader strategy: high-conviction bets on growth, paired with disciplined risk management. The next 72 hours will test whether the $123 call frenzy translates to a real breakout—or if legal risks and oil price volatility derail the rally. Either way, the $115.91–$123 range will define XOM’s near-term narrative.

For traders, the message is clear: position for the upside, but keep a leash on risk. Exxon’s balance sheet is bulletproof, but the energy sector never sleeps—and neither should your stop-loss orders.